WEBVTT

00:02.812 --> 00:03.990
- The Earth System
Prediction Capability Project

00:03.990 --> 00:07.030
is going to be improving
our global atmosphere

00:07.030 --> 00:07.991
prediction system.

00:07.991 --> 00:10.251
My name is Carolyn Reynolds,

00:10.251 --> 00:12.930
I am the lead scientist of the

00:12.930 --> 00:14.870
Probabilistic Prediction Research Office

00:14.870 --> 00:17.256
here in the Marine
Metereology Division at NRL.

00:17.256 --> 00:22.256
So we build the atmospheric
models for Navy prediction.

00:22.620 --> 00:25.300
Right now the Navy when
they want to look ahead

00:25.300 --> 00:26.240
and they want to provide

00:26.240 --> 00:27.270
what the weather is going to be like

00:27.270 --> 00:28.920
or what the climate is going to be like.

00:28.920 --> 00:30.940
Right now they have the weather forecasts,

00:30.940 --> 00:33.500
or they have the ocean or ice forecasts.

00:33.500 --> 00:35.360
Those are good about to two weeks.

00:35.360 --> 00:37.250
I they wanna look further out,

00:37.250 --> 00:39.820
up to this point they just
had to use climatology.

00:39.820 --> 00:42.350
So they can look back on
what the typical conditions

00:42.350 --> 00:44.250
have been for say a summer or winter

00:44.250 --> 00:45.713
in a particular location.

00:46.940 --> 00:50.320
So we are all coming together
with this various expertise,

00:50.320 --> 00:52.350
to build this coupled system;

00:52.350 --> 00:55.940
where the atmosphere and
the ocean and the ice models

00:55.940 --> 00:57.200
all talk together.

00:57.200 --> 00:59.890
We can provide forecasts
with this coupled system

00:59.890 --> 01:02.090
that are better than climatology.

01:02.090 --> 01:04.410
For the first time with
ESPC we will be able

01:04.410 --> 01:07.308
to extend our skillful predictions from

01:07.308 --> 01:10.830
a couple of weeks out
to a couple of months.

01:10.830 --> 01:12.440
This will be completely a new capability

01:12.440 --> 01:14.540
fr the Navy that we have never had before.

01:17.550 --> 01:20.640
In fact we are already
producing in a research mode,

01:20.640 --> 01:22.850
these 45 day coupled system forecasts,

01:22.850 --> 01:26.240
that the National Ice
Center has been using

01:26.240 --> 01:30.760
in support of the McMurdo
base down in Antarctica.

01:30.760 --> 01:32.330
Because they need a lot of time.

01:32.330 --> 01:34.900
They need several weeks
to plan where to send

01:34.900 --> 01:36.920
the ice breakers so that
they can break the ice

01:36.920 --> 01:39.737
and get the cargo ship
to resupply the station

01:39.737 --> 01:41.460
down in Antarctica.

01:41.460 --> 01:42.320
Really what it's about,

01:42.320 --> 01:43.840
what makes this a great place to work

01:43.840 --> 01:47.320
is trying to make our forecasts
as useful as possible.

01:47.320 --> 01:50.470
Its one reason we're here
in our own (mumbling)

01:50.470 --> 01:52.104
some academic institution you really want,

01:52.104 --> 01:55.703
the research that you're
working on to make a difference.

01:56.638 --> 02:00.055
(upbeat classical music)