WEBVTT 00:03.810 --> 00:07.360 Doing us this morning here in why shooting in and that to new 00:07.360 --> 00:08.810 york foreign press center. 00:10.290 --> 00:13.130 This morning we have where the us james home mend. 00:13.790 --> 00:15.990 Who is the senior political report or. 00:16.910 --> 00:18.090 For colette echo. 00:18.620 --> 00:21.480 But we'll talk about the hot braces in the senate. 00:22.000 --> 00:26.370 Please bella to get this briefing is one of the series of programs 00:26.590 --> 00:31.410 the defiant press underplay ants in advance of the midterm elections. 00:32.120 --> 00:33.450 James thank you very. 00:34.600 --> 00:37.350 A day to be with you all thank you for coming. I look forward 00:37.350 --> 00:41.530 to to talking I wanna give up a brief outline of so landscape 00:41.820 --> 00:44.810 on the senate races and then I do one. Oh what's on your mine 00:44.810 --> 00:47.960 was like and talk about any specific racing priti Taliban covering them. 00:48.340 --> 00:52.290 Dan in de out for two years. Now uh since the presidential campaign 00:52.320 --> 00:53.870 and did and it. 00:54.410 --> 00:57.670 In him kind of we're in the home stretch three weeks left a headed 00:57.670 --> 01:00.910 the tyler. This afternoon where there's a up-tick senate debate 01:01.270 --> 01:05.430 on Saturday and and so this will cut if there was a lot of time. 01:05.430 --> 01:07.570 We're there was a lot of uncertainty now things are falling in 01:07.570 --> 01:11.010 the place saw target set a map and I can talk about whatever 01:11.040 --> 01:14.400 is on your mind whether it's races or how issues are playing 01:14.400 --> 01:18.270 what's coming up aware of what what is likely to happen in in 01:18.270 --> 01:21.010 the various races the state of five courses that. 01:21.640 --> 01:25.200 The republicans in to pick up six eats to win control of the 01:25.200 --> 01:29.040 senate right now this too close to call it really could go either 01:29.040 --> 01:32.610 what everyone agrees that the house of representatives is not 01:32.640 --> 01:36.320 implied that there are couple really good governors' races which 01:36.320 --> 01:39.320 I can talk about if you're interested in but everything is really 01:39.320 --> 01:41.930 about the senate. What is that control the senate and a walk 01:41.930 --> 01:45.330 like and it will have a dramatic impact on president obama's 01:45.330 --> 01:49.040 final two years in office what will he be able to accomplish 01:49.290 --> 01:51.660 and and we can talk about what a republican senate would look 01:51.660 --> 01:55.000 like of one interesting dynamic that's important is republicans 01:55.000 --> 01:57.840 could very well when the senate this year and then lose it two 01:57.840 --> 02:01.540 years later and 26teen so we'll start right about that in in 02:01.540 --> 02:06.060 about a month but that that nap this year is very bad for democrats. 02:06.820 --> 02:10.280 So there are and what happened is we'll lector centers on six 02:10.280 --> 02:14.070 or cycles sue all a senator syrup for election right now. 02:14.070 --> 02:18.020 We're elected in 2008 which was a year or you know we was just 02:18.020 --> 02:21.470 two months after the global financial meltdown and president 02:21.470 --> 02:26.450 george of the bush was so unpopular toxic and that democrats 02:26.450 --> 02:30.530 were able to make huge gains in 2008 because people wanting to 02:30.640 --> 02:32.940 get out of iraq date. They've just. 02:33.970 --> 02:37.280 Artists owns a great year for democrats obama one bake and said 02:37.430 --> 02:40.540 democrats were able to win in States where they should not normally 02:40.570 --> 02:45.010 when a democrats one 80 always of the bowl bob goals wife lost 02:45.050 --> 02:49.160 her seat in north carolina of of early conservative state in 02:49.210 --> 02:53.840 had democrats and dialect in places like alaska Arkansas Louisiana 02:54.200 --> 02:57.760 very conservative places ensued. Now democrats are defending 02:57.760 --> 03:01.230 those seats in those States and insulin harrell we've known you 03:01.230 --> 03:04.290 would known for years that they were gonna have very tough races 03:04.530 --> 03:07.980 just by that the nature of the places where they are defending 03:08.160 --> 03:10.160 seats and that. 03:10.910 --> 03:14.860 Some republicans always enid to pick up sex. Most places there 03:14.860 --> 03:18.490 are on offsets there are on the attack and there are three States 03:18.490 --> 03:21.430 where they're really on defects where they're trying to defend 03:21.630 --> 03:25.620 current centers about sit all through the States that are most 03:25.620 --> 03:27.120 likely to flip ugh. 03:27.830 --> 03:32.650 Republicans it could have benefited tremendously from retirement. 03:33.330 --> 03:37.270 To there are three States where democratic center. First are 03:37.270 --> 03:44.340 retiring and Po rock obama last that state in 2012 sit in south 03:44.340 --> 03:49.680 Dakota west Virginia in Montana that ensued as three States are 03:49.680 --> 03:54.490 are are basically off the map in Montana a max pockets that center 03:54.620 --> 03:57.970 who'd been there for a one time is now our ambassador to china 03:58.280 --> 04:02.630 a ensue the he we're tired in interrupt that seat. They appointed 04:02.630 --> 04:05.890 democrats appointed someone to succeed henry. They felt would 04:05.890 --> 04:10.300 be able to keep it competitive but he played dries twos a thesis 04:10.300 --> 04:13.610 for his master's degree at the us army war college. He was a 04:13.610 --> 04:16.590 commander of the Montana national guard says yet to drop about 04:16.590 --> 04:20.060 of the race Sullivan disk race and the dough. 04:20.760 --> 04:23.460 Young woman that they put up to try and and phil issues just 04:23.460 --> 04:26.100 isn't raising any money and is in competitive some monthan a 04:26.100 --> 04:30.320 is definitely a republican pick up then in the west Virginia 04:30.550 --> 04:34.070 jay rockefeller from the rockefeller oil fortune uh he's been 04:34.070 --> 04:37.920 in the senate for three decades ends. He is retiring was for 04:37.920 --> 04:41.010 jenny is a state they used to be very democratic but it's become 04:41.010 --> 04:45.080 very conservative and it's it's it's really hard for for democrats 04:45.080 --> 04:48.390 to compete there. So woman in shelley more capital one that seat 04:48.700 --> 04:53.390 and then in south Dakota a tim Johnson of senator is is retiring 04:53.390 --> 04:56.330 use democrat and in that race is actually interesting because 04:56.330 --> 04:58.040 of I talk to you yesterday. I would've said. 04:58.790 --> 05:02.710 It's off the map completely but we'd just edit the democrats 05:02.710 --> 05:04.970 are kind of making a last minute play there there and spend a 05:04.970 --> 05:08.020 million dollars like I can talk with the dynamic there. But essential 05:08.020 --> 05:11.540 ethical until republicans debt those three seats. So that's half 05:11.540 --> 05:14.560 way to the majority but they need so what are the next three 05:14.560 --> 05:19.340 seats there are four democratic incumbents who or running for 05:19.340 --> 05:22.770 reelection in States that mitt Romney carried any in three of 05:22.770 --> 05:25.540 those four States mitt Romney carried them by double digits. 05:25.850 --> 05:30.200 So that we're in its bid their conservative States uh de that 05:30.230 --> 05:34.490 it's always Deeanne with mary lan troop Arkansas with mark pryor 05:34.830 --> 05:38.810 that north carolina with Kay Hayden ano Y ask out with more baggage 05:38.810 --> 05:42.850 shoes are for folks all acted in 2008 all very vulnerable now. 05:43.270 --> 05:46.920 It's surprisingly difficult in the United States to beat an incumbent 05:47.180 --> 05:51.280 senate democrat says since 2002 only through re. 05:51.980 --> 05:54.850 Democratic senators have lost reelection. 05:55.520 --> 05:58.340 Of and it's it's just it's you have the ball it pope. It you 05:58.340 --> 06:02.370 have the ability to raise a lot of money and Democrats tender 06:02.370 --> 06:04.870 retire or stay. Thank they're gonna loose rather than run for 06:04.870 --> 06:08.350 reelection unlike republicans and so it's it's difficult said 06:08.380 --> 06:12.190 to topple the use sitting members of the senate but it's very possible. 06:12.190 --> 06:16.310 So right now the poll showed neck in neck braces and all 40 States. 06:17.130 --> 06:21.040 Alaska more baggage the centered are there was able to win in 06:21.070 --> 06:25.280 2008 because ted stevens the centered had represented the state 06:25.360 --> 06:29.230 had been convicted of Sever all public corruption felonies just 06:29.230 --> 06:33.140 weeks before the election uh uh. So he lost by the west and 5000 06:33.140 --> 06:37.510 goats even despite being convicted as a fell one those felonies 06:37.510 --> 06:40.210 will convictions were later overturned in you gotta try to play 06:40.210 --> 06:43.570 accident that more vegas was only able to win because the guided 06:43.570 --> 06:46.190 the republican. He was running against in this very conservative 06:46.190 --> 06:50.390 state had serious legal problems said he is now up for reelection 06:50.600 --> 06:53.690 the guy who's running against 10 is actually dan sold and he's 06:53.690 --> 06:57.410 the former system secretary of state uh. He was the that natural 06:57.410 --> 07:00.640 resources commissioner and was appointed the state's attorney 07:00.640 --> 07:04.140 general by syrup pale in a a sick he actually spend most of his 07:04.140 --> 07:07.630 piece that much of his Courier working here in washington and 07:07.630 --> 07:11.500 then sir pale and a pointed him to come back to alaska and cities 07:11.500 --> 07:14.200 actually getting a lot of criticism for are not really having 07:14.200 --> 07:17.480 deep roots in the state not really been a resident suits that 07:17.480 --> 07:20.540 we have two poles in the last 24 hours from alaska and these 07:20.540 --> 07:24.820 are the forced polls that we've had all year from non partisan 07:25.290 --> 07:28.570 groups where they actually are there are legitimate whole sweep 07:28.570 --> 07:31.750 out a lot of republican polls and democratic polls finish under 07:31.750 --> 07:34.900 different results and bolts the polls that we've we've now receive 07:34.960 --> 07:39.880 one from CNN and one from fox news showed that the republican 07:39.880 --> 07:43.480 is up cuts three or four point. So happy to get this polls to 07:43.480 --> 07:45.740 any viewer in trusted but that they should be pretty easy to 07:45.740 --> 07:48.550 track down one soap for public and has a slight edge there. 07:48.840 --> 07:50.250 Then you look at Arkansas. 07:51.050 --> 07:55.770 Mark prior ID the democrat. They're defeated a republican in 07:55.770 --> 07:58.210 2002 coup. The heyday he. 07:58.770 --> 08:01.770 Allegedly had an affair but had divorced his wife and married 08:01.770 --> 08:05.750 one of the staffers said the republican incumbent one down mark 08:05.750 --> 08:11.490 pryor was one that seat has held that seat now a but that Arkansas 08:11.490 --> 08:14.210 has is were vocal and how to so it was governor before became 08:14.210 --> 08:18.200 president nice to be a conservative democratic state uh in an 08:18.620 --> 08:22.440 open his was actually in Arkansas for three days this week campaigning 08:22.440 --> 08:25.840 ways that the democratic can't senator there mark prior but the 08:25.840 --> 08:29.860 republican is tom cotton. He is a freshman congressman was elected 08:29.860 --> 08:34.450 in a house in 20 12 he served in combat in the in army infantry 08:34.450 --> 08:38.460 in both iraq and Afghanistan and it's kind of running is a worker 08:38.460 --> 08:43.660 over young guy uh-oh won a bunch of different metals and prior 08:43.900 --> 08:47.450 to his kind of consistently voted for all the big ticket items 08:47.480 --> 08:50.420 that that you whether it's the affordable care act will known 08:50.420 --> 08:54.310 as obama care are you know on on on this it's a conservative 08:54.310 --> 08:58.000 state obama lost by more than 20 points republicans are slightly 08:58.000 --> 09:01.700 favored to win that to that uh in will we see enough we won't 09:01.700 --> 09:05.270 know the results on election day will certainly because there's 09:05.270 --> 09:09.060 no primary auction in Louisiana and so what happens is. 09:09.570 --> 09:12.940 Everyone runs it's called a jungle primary and then if no one 09:12.940 --> 09:18.830 gets 50% on election day the top two finish ers square off one 09:18.830 --> 09:21.720 month later when it in a december sixth run off and say it's 09:21.970 --> 09:24.050 a it's it's kind of interesting because. 09:24.830 --> 09:27.190 There is a bunch riders of a bunch of other people running some 09:27.190 --> 09:30.120 kind of know who to talk to people will be in the right off but 09:30.120 --> 09:32.680 there's there's no republican primary. So there's a bunch of 09:32.680 --> 09:36.200 tea party people running their syrah pale in is actually campaigning 09:36.200 --> 09:39.960 for one of the this basically that tea party independent tights 09:40.250 --> 09:44.290 an SUV that race is gonna be decided in december of mary Landers 09:44.290 --> 09:48.040 at this point favored toe lose and then a north carolina the 09:48.040 --> 09:51.140 forthright state to take a game like I said to be the was but 09:51.170 --> 09:55.840 ball she is is probably better positioned than those other three 09:56.220 --> 10:01.080 uh but is is still former bowl of she's probably up 4% in that 10:01.080 --> 10:04.350 race and she also was voted kind of consist of late with the 10:04.350 --> 10:06.850 president is getting hammered on matt brock obama's. 10:07.690 --> 10:11.250 Of was already really unpopular a lot of estates that are battlegrounds 10:11.250 --> 10:14.710 this year. He's become more unpopular. There is a poll last week 10:14.740 --> 10:18.840 in the we sienna that should obama's approval rating among whites 10:18.910 --> 10:21.210 and always II and uh is 17 percent. 10:21.760 --> 10:25.960 Sue the city obama as toxic and a lot of estates old the side 10:25.960 --> 10:29.320 control the senate and that makes it rolling harbinger democrat 10:29.320 --> 10:32.970 is mostly voted with the president. You it's it's difficult to 10:32.970 --> 10:37.160 distance yourself too much in an election year and ensued it. 10:37.190 --> 10:40.090 It's a dynamic that soy interesting the president is is arkless 10:40.090 --> 10:42.900 staying out of the state's with competitive center races. I can 10:42.900 --> 10:46.130 talk more about that but he's he's sticking with places that 10:46.130 --> 10:49.790 are more why a bully boy who were democratic uh it sued those 10:49.790 --> 10:52.480 of the four core States where republicans are likely to get the 10:52.480 --> 10:55.580 majority to get the next three seats that they need to be on 10:55.580 --> 10:59.420 that the next key races to watch aryan pile up. 11:00.140 --> 11:04.380 The longtime senator there are tom arkin a is retiring he someone 11:04.380 --> 11:07.170 who ran for president actually gets bill clinton in the 19 82 11:07.170 --> 11:11.140 democratic primaries. He's been around for a while it and so 11:11.340 --> 11:14.860 he is retiring and it's right now I think the true was ta separates 11:14.890 --> 11:18.390 the truce neck and neck even we don't know what's gonna happen 11:18.390 --> 11:22.840 race at this point is is an Iowa there's a a democrat who's been 11:22.840 --> 11:26.330 in congressman for a decade and then there's a republican state 11:26.330 --> 11:29.390 senator a woman named joe me. You're Ernst a sheet you might 11:29.390 --> 11:32.350 have seen her I had she ran an ad during the primaries about 11:32.350 --> 11:33.520 castrated hagues. 11:34.060 --> 11:36.980 It day one and was to that that she she ran this commercial were 11:36.980 --> 11:39.920 she talked about growing up in a hard foreman said I castrated 11:39.920 --> 11:43.630 hagues growing up if you send me to washington all may come squeals. 11:44.330 --> 11:48.670 Uh can sue sue season. She's running this folksy campaign try 11:48.670 --> 11:51.640 to run against washington saying you are running is someone is 11:51.640 --> 11:54.410 gonna come in really shake things up and the democrat is obviously 11:54.410 --> 11:57.080 been here ensue he he stranded. 11:57.820 --> 12:00.860 Distance um saw from washington and and now from the president 12:01.130 --> 12:04.440 to that dynamic is very interesting. But I was isabella brennan 12:04.440 --> 12:07.510 the presidential campaign uh. It's also you because it was a 12:07.510 --> 12:10.930 very special place in our nominating process for presidential 12:10.930 --> 12:15.310 candidates that I always has special place in obama lore because 12:15.700 --> 12:18.770 it it's obama had not won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 he would 12:18.770 --> 12:22.540 not of been president emitted on that path to the nomination 12:22.780 --> 12:24.400 it carried the state ball times. 12:25.050 --> 12:29.060 And the general election but it was it was very close in 2012 12:29.090 --> 12:33.300 and say when it will be a competitive say began in the 2016 presidential 12:33.300 --> 12:36.240 campaign which is why that races is particularly interesting 12:36.240 --> 12:40.070 it and one headed there uh this weekend and then there are in 12:40.180 --> 12:40.660 their or. 12:41.170 --> 12:44.370 There's a bunch more races but take key ones that are actually 12:44.530 --> 12:47.690 most likely to be republican pickups in terms of thinking about 12:47.690 --> 12:51.810 how are they gonna get in cobble together a majority in Colorado 12:52.230 --> 12:57.260 a market viewed all what it was elected in 2008 in he is now 12:57.260 --> 13:00.800 very vulnerable thug iran against tim is named core gartner. 13:00.800 --> 13:04.270 He's a commerce been from the Denver area a license or not he 13:04.270 --> 13:06.910 section a from the Denver ace about his is disturbed now kinda 13:06.910 --> 13:11.740 comes up to it to Denver but that sit that races is very close but. 13:12.280 --> 13:15.080 Colorado unlike some of these places like Louisiana and Arkansas 13:15.080 --> 13:20.020 a is more democratic it hasn't of very large what tea no population 13:20.290 --> 13:24.260 and a younger population these legalize marijuana dare and so 13:24.260 --> 13:26.850 it's it's not a socially conservative there are some to persist 13:26.850 --> 13:30.730 within syrup pockets. The race is largely about women's issues. 13:30.730 --> 13:34.890 Right now uh because core gartner are as and a state legislator 13:34.890 --> 13:37.500 now as a congressman a very conservative district data and a 13:37.500 --> 13:39.360 relatively kind of moderate state. 13:39.980 --> 13:44.760 Has been supportive of of a lot of very restrictive laws on abortion 13:45.110 --> 13:49.580 and sue all the democratic ads or or hit him on that and he's 13:49.700 --> 13:52.500 been running a lot of for defensive adds about women's issues. 13:52.730 --> 13:53.620 So that that. 13:54.290 --> 13:57.810 Braces likely to turn on what sort of republican minded independent 13:57.810 --> 14:01.270 women do in the Denver saw books. So there's a there's actually 14:01.270 --> 14:04.030 if you look at a map of Colorado Denver is right in the middle 14:04.030 --> 14:08.290 the state and there's a seat around Denver or you can seek all 14:08.320 --> 14:11.710 election bile accent. If it's if it's a rad seeds that means 14:11.710 --> 14:14.880 republicans won the state and if it's a of boysie a means democrats 14:14.880 --> 14:18.320 won the state your republican red democrat plume said that braces 14:18.320 --> 14:20.670 very fun to watch. It's really interesting the candidates are 14:20.670 --> 14:24.610 in our very interesting personalities than the other are that 14:24.610 --> 14:27.570 next like this republican pick up his and you've hampshire another 14:27.570 --> 14:32.070 state with of a special war in American politics scott brown. 14:32.900 --> 14:37.520 Picked up ted Kennedy's seat in Massachusetts and in 20 10 he 14:37.520 --> 14:41.100 lost to will was with warren in 20 12 the Massachusetts and then 14:41.100 --> 14:45.340 last year he moved from Massachusetts next order in new hampshire 14:45.740 --> 14:49.540 a became a resident of new hampshire last december and then two 14:49.540 --> 14:53.570 months later announced accuse gonna run for senate in new hampshire answer. 14:53.570 --> 14:58.060 He uh the new entries a much more can a mp mill the road state 14:58.060 --> 15:00.710 that Massachusetts which is that there's there's really democratic 15:00.710 --> 15:03.180 in any was these um our republican is running a someone he's 15:03.400 --> 15:04.710 pro choice on abortion. 15:05.470 --> 15:09.250 He's tried but he did your you ski supported. But assault weapons 15:09.250 --> 15:13.940 ban in the past a in cities he supporter of gun control and event 15:13.940 --> 15:17.740 that's an interesting dynamic the gene. She seemed a democrat 15:18.170 --> 15:21.550 in that race is up for reelection. She's the only woman in U.S. 15:21.550 --> 15:25.390 history to been elected ball state governor and a center hurt 15:25.390 --> 15:28.370 sushi served three terms as governor of new hampshire and then 15:28.370 --> 15:32.280 was elected to this senate and say she uh she had seized down 15:32.280 --> 15:36.020 on the political scene for four decades interesting personality. 15:36.210 --> 15:41.890 She was a shoe ran jimmy Carter's new hampshire campaign when 15:41.890 --> 15:45.860 he ran for president 19 80 a worked burying that in the democratic 15:45.860 --> 15:49.520 primary actually does ted Kennedy and she is someone has been 15:49.520 --> 15:52.040 on the scene for really long time in that state shoes on al Gore 15:52.040 --> 15:56.810 shortlist to be vice president and now just in this anti obama year. 15:56.970 --> 16:01.660 She's in danger of of losing addicted to discuss cup around. 16:02.190 --> 16:06.410 And incident on the the of the flip side and alt search to question 16:06.410 --> 16:10.200 soon use one I kinda touch always races those three races were 16:10.200 --> 16:12.410 democrats are on off fans. 16:13.340 --> 16:17.560 In Kentucky mitch McConnell. The senate minority leader who would 16:17.560 --> 16:21.180 become the senate majority leader for publicans pick up six seats 16:21.360 --> 16:25.340 is in a very difficult race against the 35 year old named owl 16:25.340 --> 16:28.900 some wonder grin bronze. She's the secretary of state a herd 16:28.900 --> 16:32.380 as close friends with bill clinton and which but calm selected 16:32.380 --> 16:36.170 to the senate may titi for are he's been there for three decades 16:36.170 --> 16:40.090 and Suu Kyi each to the race the is is kind of. 16:40.720 --> 16:43.930 First russian with washington across the country in both parties 16:43.930 --> 16:47.140 people for you know that two thirds or more of americans in every 16:47.140 --> 16:50.420 poll found that the country's is headed on the wrong track. 16:50.940 --> 16:54.070 And you'd democrat in that race is saying mitch McConnell is 16:54.070 --> 16:57.070 what you know that in other races a row explaining brock obama. 16:57.620 --> 17:01.140 For. Frustration with the direction the country that the feeling 17:01.140 --> 17:04.160 that the economy's recovering but it's a jobless recovery and 17:04.160 --> 17:08.450 in Kentucky she's trying to pin it on him the that he's not particularly 17:08.450 --> 17:13.320 popular is not really unpopular but it is is a you know uh priority 17:13.320 --> 17:16.760 news about 40% a lot of polls. So that's yet to find a way to 17:16.760 --> 17:20.470 win reelection with 40 percent. So that races particularly negative 17:20.900 --> 17:25.360 and she is a been attacking him for being this DC insider who 17:25.360 --> 17:29.200 votes to raises on pay has been here forever and then he is attacking 17:29.200 --> 17:33.450 upper Izzo as upon or rubber stamp for brock obama answer that 17:33.500 --> 17:35.230 all the ads are you know you. 17:35.990 --> 17:40.470 Really kind of nasty in that race uh and and it's been a away. 17:40.470 --> 17:43.400 So bottom all Tully McConnell is likely to win that race because 17:43.610 --> 17:45.800 he has so much money she's been able to raise a lot that. 17:46.640 --> 17:51.620 But uh but he did he could lose which are about would that while 17:51.620 --> 17:55.160 likely would create a very interesting leadership fight here 17:55.160 --> 18:00.420 in washington in december and january about two would leave republicans 18:00.680 --> 18:03.850 a bit. There's two or three guys that walk the job but no one 18:03.850 --> 18:07.450 wants to say that they walk that job right now because he's obviously 18:07.450 --> 18:14.180 in this mr. To freeze the other two core georgia a into Kansas 18:14.210 --> 18:15.080 in in georgia. 18:15.920 --> 18:20.500 Uh but michelle non is she is a democrats she's running is a 18:20.500 --> 18:25.280 moderate she's the daughter of sam nun who was a longtime us senator. 18:25.500 --> 18:28.760 He was the chairman of the senate armed services committee and 18:28.830 --> 18:34.980 a has done a lot on on the On foreign policy. She these seeds a. 18:35.930 --> 18:39.420 Is is helping heard rate peel and Citi's deceit this woman michelle month. 18:39.590 --> 18:43.010 She actually spent two decades running won the biggest nonprofits 18:43.230 --> 18:47.710 focused on volunteerism in america and She actually for the last 18:47.910 --> 18:52.200 decade or so has been running george each doubly of Bush's non-profit. 18:52.260 --> 18:55.650 It's called the points of white foundation and sushi step down 18:55.650 --> 19:00.680 from this non-profit that is actually stilt chaired by a Torch 19:00.680 --> 19:05.520 to leave ocean jed. Bush's brother knee all and and Was 41 son 19:05.890 --> 19:09.700 uh in in now she's running is a democrat the republican is a 19:09.700 --> 19:13.060 guy named david purdue and he. 19:13.580 --> 19:18.480 Is that the OS eelv was the CEO Boucher different are in a 500 19:18.480 --> 19:23.490 biggest fortune companies and he uh is is the republican but 19:23.490 --> 19:26.670 his first cousin was also or their republican governor torture 19:26.910 --> 19:31.350 for nearly a decade and tall pretty recently said there's two 19:31.350 --> 19:34.880 dynasties that are really competing there. It's an interesting 19:34.880 --> 19:38.860 race it toward those are republican leaning state. So he's likely 19:38.860 --> 19:42.120 to win. But this the woman the democrat has a very interesting 19:42.120 --> 19:46.970 story to tell and our that that seat because of oh growing Latino 19:46.970 --> 19:51.070 population all large African American population is very competitive 19:51.230 --> 19:54.830 for democrats and then in Kansas that's one of those things where. 19:55.700 --> 19:58.190 Kansas is one of the most conservative States in the country. 19:58.640 --> 20:02.770 But the that senator there has hardly spent any time at home. 20:03.060 --> 20:07.250 He has been working in DC is a staff are on the hell since the 20:07.250 --> 20:10.440 19 sixties cues in the house of representatives for a really 20:10.440 --> 20:15.640 long time and he's been in the senate now since 19 96 and he 20:15.640 --> 20:20.160 rented of away easy boyd share in the home of a supporter Fergie 20:20.190 --> 20:24.750 unit for his residents and SEO heat uh. He doesn't have a house 20:24.750 --> 20:27.910 of his own back in the state that he represents and he's also 20:27.940 --> 20:30.910 he he someone he's not tie the firebrand conservative than it's 20:30.910 --> 20:35.390 ever concert state city at a really tough primary challenge any 20:35.420 --> 20:39.510 for a while looks like he could goad down in lose in the republican primary. 20:39.740 --> 20:42.430 He ended up winning because there he won with 40% because or 20:42.430 --> 20:45.640 a bunch of people who are running against him and the main guy 20:45.640 --> 20:49.480 who is running against him and posted x-rays on facebook of his 20:49.480 --> 20:54.050 patients and uh. Oh all these kind of the grotesque things on 20:54.050 --> 20:57.320 facebook soup. That's why he ended up losing. I think uh to that 20:57.350 --> 20:59.710 that tea party challenger. I think pat roberts cut of Austin 20:59.710 --> 21:05.340 a primary he wins the primary narrowly and good uh there's an 21:05.370 --> 21:08.680 independent candidate. He's a young guy who's really rich hasn't 21:08.680 --> 21:12.060 taken positions on anything is uh. Basically is the said very 21:12.060 --> 21:15.300 what all and is running as an independent he just once stood 21:15.410 --> 21:19.170 through the very pragmatic and and try to make washington work 21:19.450 --> 21:22.350 and because he was doing so while the independent the democrat 21:22.350 --> 21:26.240 actually drop off the ballot. So there's no democratic candidate 21:26.560 --> 21:30.540 in the Kansas center race. Sits does independent against this 21:30.710 --> 21:35.070 title old senator who has a lot of residency issues. And is this 21:35.070 --> 21:38.090 sort of scene is disconnected from the state said that should 21:38.090 --> 21:41.660 be a safe republican seat because it's a republican waning year. 21:42.400 --> 21:46.500 And it's it that's a very conservative state but he's very vulnerable 21:46.530 --> 21:49.490 and a bunch are recent polls show that that independent is actually 21:49.490 --> 21:53.660 weeding right now ensue national republicans over nervous because 21:53.660 --> 21:56.520 it the least Kansas that means there to pick up one more seat 21:56.520 --> 22:01.390 some or else to get the majority and control of congress said 22:01.390 --> 22:05.370 they've sent all sorts of money and to you Kansas on all sorts 22:05.370 --> 22:09.270 of the most talented operatives to try and and whole pat roberts 22:09.550 --> 22:11.730 across the finish wants of that is also an interesting or as 22:11.760 --> 22:15.350 a way that is for about a review all the key races on the landscape. 22:15.700 --> 22:18.490 I know I'm from one of these hopefuls I can't whatever's most 22:18.490 --> 22:21.220 interesting to you whether it's races or people or personalities 22:21.220 --> 22:24.640 are are or what they she's or import know how president obama 22:24.640 --> 22:28.840 is playing a go rolfe outside money a any anything like that 22:29.020 --> 22:30.260 that's a play nice races. 22:31.070 --> 22:34.530 Well. Placed way to to get my for fall and then when you get 22:34.530 --> 22:37.310 at the stake your name and you made. Organization. 22:39.440 --> 22:42.360 It's The thing. 22:43.760 --> 22:49.370 Oh. Was skating contains a and stuff we all know all that the 22:49.800 --> 22:51.230 the supreme called. 22:51.860 --> 22:53.340 Me that to woody that they. 22:54.020 --> 22:59.010 Uh. Mecca seen fee and but the role connection come measham. 22:59.450 --> 23:05.460 What can golf impact of peace and on that the term you action. Ooh. 23:06.700 --> 23:11.580 Oh. Posted of a a us on the whole thank you. Thank you for a 23:11.580 --> 23:15.590 a money it more money will be spent a uh in the campaigns than 23:15.590 --> 23:18.250 ever before with have record breaking sounds. 23:18.860 --> 23:21.980 But the real big decision was the 20 10 supreme court decision 23:21.980 --> 23:23.530 in citizens United. 23:24.170 --> 23:28.900 That. Dramatically change so the money financed campaign finance 23:28.900 --> 23:33.730 landscape and awhile basically from omitted dark money to it 23:33.780 --> 23:38.320 to be spent our campaigns and up as a result there are a lot 23:38.320 --> 23:42.130 of different kind of shadowy entities the can spend millions 23:42.130 --> 23:46.370 of dollars in these races and we don't know who is funding them 23:46.370 --> 23:50.230 until after the election is over the the mccutcheon decision 23:50.230 --> 23:53.940 this year at the time. I think it was over played by people in 23:53.940 --> 23:57.080 terms of its significance it probably means all a bit more money 23:57.400 --> 24:00.910 but it was already gonna be a lot of money uh one of the big 24:00.910 --> 24:05.390 trends we've seen the serious sit up about an america that rule 24:05.390 --> 24:06.650 of thumb used to be that. 24:07.220 --> 24:09.830 In odd numbered years. You got stuff done. 24:10.540 --> 24:13.740 Andean even number two years iran for reelection. 24:14.630 --> 24:18.460 If you're so our auctions are every two years and a E a presidential 24:18.460 --> 24:21.080 campaign ever. If orders on an these mid term auctions in between 24:21.080 --> 24:25.460 them and increasingly we have a a permit campaign people never 24:25.460 --> 24:27.480 stop running for reelection. 24:28.250 --> 24:33.210 And and as a result you haven't money is spent all a time and 24:33.210 --> 24:36.500 say what happened after the citizens United decision in 20 10 24:36.500 --> 24:40.300 is will publicans were very good at playing the outside money 24:40.300 --> 24:44.050 doing so they created the super packs like American crossroads 24:44.080 --> 24:47.490 and they spent that and uh a lot of money and it helped republicans 24:47.720 --> 24:52.040 do really. Well in the 20 10 election's ensue in 20 12 democrats 24:52.040 --> 24:53.030 said we're not gonna get beat. 24:53.550 --> 24:57.540 That that the super packed game. I can and so then they work 24:57.540 --> 25:01.600 oehler hard arrays. All lot of money and did really well and 25:01.630 --> 25:04.640 as a result you can add it had this arms race when it comes to 25:04.640 --> 25:08.230 spending and because so much money is spent in the fall campaigns 25:08.480 --> 25:11.540 in a lot of the States in the dope the nature of that map as 25:11.540 --> 25:14.260 I explained it that the places that are gonna decided controls 25:14.260 --> 25:16.610 the senate actually have a very small percentage of the total 25:16.610 --> 25:20.950 American population. So all ask a year ago only has one. 25:21.490 --> 25:24.420 Member of the house because there's just not the many people 25:24.420 --> 25:28.150 there it's a few hundred thousand people and and said there's 25:28.150 --> 25:29.640 just not that much air time. 25:30.460 --> 25:34.520 Alaska television you know it's a it's to media markets its encourage 25:34.520 --> 25:38.940 him fanfare banks and so in the fall. If you have a lot of money 25:38.940 --> 25:42.100 the you wanna spend on these races. There's only somebody commercials 25:42.100 --> 25:43.040 you can were surf. 25:43.980 --> 25:47.570 And and ended in every commercial is about politics. 25:48.280 --> 25:52.000 It is in these in the some of these races and so what has happened 25:52.000 --> 25:54.620 is these outside groups of said we'll we'll will wait totally 25:54.620 --> 25:58.540 hand because everyone every out is gonna be about politics. 25:58.710 --> 26:01.080 So let's run advertisements really early. 26:01.760 --> 26:05.000 And so what are the big story lines this cycle. It is in it in 26:05.050 --> 26:08.730 Arkansas for example there are basically been political iAds 26:08.730 --> 26:13.310 running non stop since the spring of 20 thirteen. 26:13.910 --> 26:18.220 For election in november 24 team and there are been Durbin some 26:18.220 --> 26:21.510 of the of the democratic that were the major the main democratic 26:21.650 --> 26:26.360 outside super pack a has been running ads basically non stop 26:26.620 --> 26:30.470 since september of 20 30 so they're gonna have been on the air 26:30.470 --> 26:34.610 for 14 straight months and I told about the races is the sky 26:34.610 --> 26:37.990 more prior. He's a democrat he's very vulnerable obama's really 26:37.990 --> 26:41.810 unpopular there and so what they did was they said the republican 26:41.810 --> 26:45.620 challenger dunstan is is a guy who's it is who early forties. 26:45.870 --> 26:49.040 He's really young and he's not very well known he represents 26:49.070 --> 26:52.030 one how sister pity just one two years ago. What's along the 26:52.030 --> 26:55.340 year before see can raise enough money to run his own ads and 26:55.340 --> 26:59.690 defying hand is this totally crazy radically conservative guide 26:59.690 --> 27:03.940 to what's to get rid of medicare and was to do all these things 27:04.150 --> 27:07.460 and city distorted hammering him and as a result. 27:08.130 --> 27:11.410 While the president Islam popular of all the democrats unpopular 27:11.570 --> 27:13.250 more people Arkansas to you. 27:13.970 --> 27:17.000 The republican and favor believe in view him favorably because 27:17.000 --> 27:18.260 of this pad on slot. 27:18.970 --> 27:22.290 And then because the democrats for spending money republican settled. 27:22.290 --> 27:24.610 We need to send money to to prevent us from losing this race. 27:24.610 --> 27:27.780 That's so important to control in congress and say you've had 27:27.780 --> 27:32.230 this this is just amazing the people of Arkansas had been subjected 27:32.230 --> 27:36.100 to political advertising for your and a half before the election 27:36.330 --> 27:39.410 and at this point you know it's harder Brits are with new information 27:39.700 --> 27:40.740 if europe if europe. 27:41.840 --> 27:44.710 All attain any attention an Arkansas you've just been hammered 27:44.710 --> 27:48.070 with these messages for order year. So what are you really gonna 27:48.070 --> 27:50.090 lore in the final three weeks in a campaign. 27:50.600 --> 27:53.580 About either of those two candidates that you didn't know. 27:54.150 --> 27:59.170 Six months ago and but it's the same time. If you're the good 27:59.520 --> 28:02.450 candidate you can't stop the advertising you can light up and 28:02.450 --> 28:06.360 say at this point most of the ads on television are are are are a. 28:06.880 --> 28:10.030 A or campaign commercials and it's funny because in these races 28:10.410 --> 28:14.040 because they're stunning so much money they're very sophisticated 28:14.040 --> 28:17.470 a run different tabs on different kinds of TV channels. So there 28:17.470 --> 28:20.830 are our pads that are a very directed eight young women running 28:20.830 --> 28:25.610 during certain shows on on Bravo and there are ads directed it 28:25.830 --> 28:29.740 at people who like to go hunting a from bolts side stirring certain 28:29.740 --> 28:33.660 shows and see you have this isn't me this cycle but because there's 28:33.660 --> 28:37.080 just so much spending you have a lot of of kind of slicing dicing 28:37.300 --> 28:40.970 and despite all that money former million dollars was spent on 28:40.970 --> 28:46.340 center braces alone before labor day of of this year a all what 28:46.340 --> 28:50.070 is races are still toss ups and are still be of basically tied 28:50.070 --> 28:54.080 their of a jump ball and and that you know three or four weeks 28:54.080 --> 28:55.410 out says it's kind of amazing because. 28:56.240 --> 29:00.960 All those money's been spent really full full four or 5% of the 29:00.960 --> 29:04.470 people in Arkansas uh. You know which is just one of 50 different. 29:05.090 --> 29:05.960 American States. 29:07.430 --> 29:09.830 And we go into your place me or not. 29:10.830 --> 29:15.040 Just stick to the streets daily little thank you for read news conference. 29:15.150 --> 29:19.020 I have two questions for swum is you were talking about the doomed 29:19.020 --> 29:25.210 dramatic impacts the that would have a loss of the control said 29:25.210 --> 29:29.100 this seven by the democrats what would beat as a looms a margin 29:29.100 --> 29:32.190 of man you read would be leftist tool president obama and piece 29:32.190 --> 29:35.650 Kay's that's money. First question in the second is about to 29:35.650 --> 29:39.310 how all season votes out of reach of the democrats how how to 29:39.310 --> 29:44.110 do clued dowen a of east to nominally to insists ramses eat. 29:44.170 --> 29:49.120 Jared Mandarin bees. It's also old his await a the obama campaign 29:49.120 --> 29:53.330 actually focuses focused on urban centers meeting. 29:53.990 --> 29:57.060 This hide actually old the countryside. Thank you. 29:57.950 --> 30:00.400 Yeah a Wyman those. 30:01.580 --> 30:05.240 The the first question news what what obama be able to get done. 30:05.780 --> 30:10.050 If republicans take control the senate a did it's it it's an 30:10.050 --> 30:12.890 interesting question in its curly what ever what is talking about 30:13.270 --> 30:15.600 a republicans that I think. 30:16.320 --> 30:19.800 Sue republicans are gonna have to defend senate seats in 26teen 30:19.830 --> 30:22.870 in very boy who places so. 30:23.660 --> 30:27.220 There's a republican sit senator is out for real action Pennsylvania 30:27.520 --> 30:30.950 and was can send and new hampshire and a bunch of places that 30:30.950 --> 30:34.390 are just to be very hard for publican to win and so I actually 30:34.390 --> 30:34.900 think that. 30:35.600 --> 30:38.050 Republicans will be eager to work with obama. 30:38.690 --> 30:43.870 On on passing stuff because it be is senator swapped a goal home 30:44.220 --> 30:44.720 to these. 30:45.440 --> 30:48.180 States were the president is actually not that unpopular in talk 30:48.180 --> 30:51.050 about their ability to work across the aisle and actually get 30:51.050 --> 30:54.890 things accomplished and president obama two dozen one of become 30:54.890 --> 30:58.730 a lame duck is eager to go to work with democrats to make big 30:58.770 --> 31:03.170 deals suited. He can kind of have accomplishments that he can 31:03.170 --> 31:06.660 point to a on the other hand that uh huh. 31:07.580 --> 31:10.820 They're they're still kind of a civil war in some degree tidied. 31:10.820 --> 31:15.690 It's it it a metaphor in the republican party and the it's it's 31:15.690 --> 31:20.000 not clear that even if the leaders of the republican party walk 31:20.000 --> 31:24.070 to make big deals with obama that their rank and file waited 31:24.270 --> 31:28.210 with backed emma and and so ultimately john bane or in a may 31:28.210 --> 31:31.720 only be around one more time percy may retire he also stinky 31:31.720 --> 31:34.820 about it's like a seat he may want to negotiate some grand bargain 31:34.820 --> 31:40.180 on the deficit or are immigration or some in a big ticket. 31:40.870 --> 31:43.760 Items but he may does not be able to get the votes from the while 31:43.760 --> 31:47.070 conservative members of his republican conference and so that's 31:47.070 --> 31:49.990 why I think it is certain to be determined what actually will 31:49.990 --> 31:53.100 get accomplished a but in some ways is actually. 31:53.880 --> 31:57.640 Up more possible that things will get done a unique you with 31:57.640 --> 32:02.020 republicans a and at the same time. You I'd I'd do think the 32:02.090 --> 32:05.640 big story of the next two years regardless of of anything that 32:05.640 --> 32:09.260 actually does happen is gridlock because the matter what happens 32:09.260 --> 32:09.810 next month. 32:10.930 --> 32:14.370 Republicans are all we gonna ed most control 53 senate seats 32:14.640 --> 32:19.110 in order to parade sold fosters yet to have 67 tsetse you can 32:19.110 --> 32:22.480 have a majority in you can set the agenda and you can decide 32:22.680 --> 32:26.160 what issues you're gonna vote on uh. You know where it in and 32:26.350 --> 32:28.430 kind of shape more of the that. 32:29.390 --> 32:33.760 The agenda but alton delayed democrats can still block legislation. 32:33.760 --> 32:36.460 So I think on the campaign trawl mitch McConnell is talking about 32:36.700 --> 32:38.820 beard won the first things he wants to do these majority. 32:38.820 --> 32:42.320 We're is to pass a big down abortion after 20 weeks. 32:43.010 --> 32:46.490 And I think that would never actually passed the senate won the 32:46.490 --> 32:49.630 president would never sign an into law but the democrats will 32:49.630 --> 32:53.770 have enough votes to block who had built even if he is able to 32:53.770 --> 32:56.590 have a a a simple majority on the second question. 32:57.360 --> 33:01.520 About why republicans have a lock on the house. I think that 33:01.550 --> 33:05.110 it is it's a mix of the two things re disrupting assert late 33:05.140 --> 33:07.900 up piece of that but republicans have controlled re district 33:07.900 --> 33:11.560 in before in some initial lose the house in the 2006 midterm 33:11.560 --> 33:13.160 elections when they were really bad. 33:13.670 --> 33:18.010 The six europe any president's term sees his party wu sits at 33:18.040 --> 33:22.770 a going back to world war two every all action in that that the 33:22.770 --> 33:26.740 mid term election in and a president's second term with one exception 33:26.740 --> 33:29.710 which was 19 88 after bill Klein mid been impeached in had some 33:29.710 --> 33:33.300 sympathy you've seen the the president's party lose seats it 33:33.300 --> 33:37.320 even riled arrayed and broader Agins republicans lost control 33:37.320 --> 33:38.810 the senate in 19 80 six. 33:39.490 --> 33:44.210 Been in that in the candidate call time for Reagan and Well publicans 33:44.210 --> 33:48.690 lost control of those senate in 2006 one and a one drawer shibani 33:48.690 --> 33:52.140 bush who was president so that the kind of that the nature of 33:52.140 --> 33:56.590 history means that that democrats are gonna be on de fans inherent label. 33:56.660 --> 33:59.370 When you have a president and so I do think that if the tables 33:59.370 --> 34:04.180 littered and there was a republican president right now and republicans 34:04.180 --> 34:07.310 controlled the house we wouldn't be talking about the of more 34:07.310 --> 34:10.260 competitive house environment side. I don't think that it's kind 34:10.260 --> 34:13.390 of totally off the table. I do think democrats could win the 34:13.390 --> 34:16.230 house at some point before 20 20 it will just be really hard 34:16.620 --> 34:20.150 uh and I do think it's it is either democrats or a a. 34:20.770 --> 34:24.430 Are kind of them all been concentrated party end republicans 34:24.430 --> 34:28.360 or a a tennis abode in rural concentrate party. But one of the 34:28.550 --> 34:33.440 sick keys to president obama's success has been that he's been 34:33.440 --> 34:37.300 able to action perform pretty well and in suburban areas that 34:37.300 --> 34:40.460 republicans are gonna have to find a way to win if they're gonna 34:40.460 --> 34:42.240 wanna win the presidency in 20 sixteen. 34:43.890 --> 34:44.480 They just can't. 34:46.940 --> 34:48.870 I Woo. 34:50.100 --> 34:54.360 Good oh come with a home can finnick stevie. So what indo stayed 34:54.360 --> 34:58.180 supporters some the issue wrist that determined the raise a acre 34:58.180 --> 35:02.380 jus a sum up and that I know so uh you talked about to have some 35:02.380 --> 35:05.680 of the democrats are attracted distanced themselves from obama 35:05.680 --> 35:10.750 so but to what degree he can that be stings themself from obama 35:10.750 --> 35:12.900 so they can steal a in out. 35:13.470 --> 35:17.930 Gains support from that democrats it base and also gained support 35:17.930 --> 35:21.390 from the and of their I don't know in the middle. So right could 35:21.390 --> 35:24.450 you in a bird on the two very important questions that get a 35:24.450 --> 35:28.350 key themes of this auction which it so the first on what is the 35:28.350 --> 35:29.300 issue matrix. 35:29.810 --> 35:33.790 In 24teen that this election is still bought about any one thing 35:33.790 --> 35:34.520 in particular. 35:35.220 --> 35:38.460 The 20 title auctions at the core about obama care and the health 35:38.460 --> 35:43.340 care a lot of you'd you'd 2008 election was about change whatever 35:43.340 --> 35:46.480 that means a the 2006 election was about iraq. 35:47.030 --> 35:48.850 Uh in in 2000 fourteen. 35:49.460 --> 35:52.940 You that the health care a lot is a factor but it's not the defining factor. 35:52.940 --> 35:55.290 I think it's sort of baked in the the Kate that's part of the 35:55.290 --> 35:59.530 wallpaper to use a lot of fish it. It's a bit people in it. 35:59.530 --> 36:02.700 It's basically pub that health care what has the same popular 36:02.700 --> 36:06.200 tea is a did four years ago and it's not it's not people are 36:06.200 --> 36:09.040 gonna at the seven a drive people's broke the economy. 36:09.300 --> 36:12.970 There's mixed signals that I did the top one economic numbers 36:12.970 --> 36:15.890 are pretty good but a lot of the key States with center races 36:15.890 --> 36:17.190 the economy's not so good. 36:18.010 --> 36:21.210 And so you can point to top-line gains in and gross domestic 36:21.210 --> 36:24.490 product growth in the national unemployment rate but a lot of 36:24.490 --> 36:27.710 people are feeling it they're feeling squeezed they're they're 36:28.020 --> 36:31.840 a income when adjusted for inflation is actually gone down and 36:31.840 --> 36:35.330 said that the economy f-ing for some people is a factor it contributes 36:35.330 --> 36:37.840 this feeling of the country's on the wrong track uh. So there's 36:37.840 --> 36:41.800 not any one thing and as a result what we're publicans hope happens 36:42.060 --> 36:44.120 is that voter see this as a chaos. 36:44.900 --> 36:50.020 Election's where that countries on the wrong track the 70% international 36:50.020 --> 36:53.140 poll save the country's had in on the wrong track and as a result 36:53.400 --> 36:56.950 the the old wine in america is just throw the bums out there 36:56.950 --> 36:59.140 rider the people who are in office right now get rid of that 36:59.140 --> 37:03.840 people in power. What's what someone new tried and I'll it's 37:03.840 --> 37:08.230 have a check and balance on on president obama a ensue. 37:09.140 --> 37:12.360 It it's not you know not any one thing that the all the term 37:12.360 --> 37:14.340 while overseas a. 37:15.120 --> 37:18.650 Yeah bolder uh. You know on on on on just everything contributes 37:18.650 --> 37:21.910 to this narrative that the world the spitting out of control 37:22.260 --> 37:26.300 and we need new people to to have a new direction. So that's 37:26.330 --> 37:28.700 where republicans hope democrats kind of. 37:29.260 --> 37:33.510 Our our trend a lot of times run that these races on very local issues. 37:34.490 --> 37:37.560 Because to it you know how to distance herself from a boxes for 37:37.560 --> 37:39.230 their transition and your second question. 37:40.030 --> 37:43.730 A lot of the adds an alaska are about a mining project. Hit a 37:43.730 --> 37:46.740 unit a democratic debts the republican support says controversial 37:46.740 --> 37:50.380 mining project and the democrat opposes it because it will hold fisherman. 37:51.060 --> 37:53.890 And so there's always adds about this mine that's a total would 37:53.890 --> 37:57.720 parochial issued. But that actually could be very important in 37:57.720 --> 38:01.440 this race and republicans are running ads that say this democrat 38:01.440 --> 38:05.230 says no return about the mine but he goes with obama 97% of a 38:05.230 --> 38:08.620 time and you paid obama se vote against him in north carolina 38:08.940 --> 38:12.230 all all the advertisements have been about a education. 38:12.740 --> 38:16.050 And because they're republican challenger against the center 38:16.050 --> 38:18.060 is the speaker of the state house. 38:18.580 --> 38:23.470 And Suu Kyi with private had to make some initial education spending cuts. 38:23.470 --> 38:26.380 It's it's debatable we're actually because he also increased 38:26.380 --> 38:30.030 education wider. But class sizes are bigger as a result of some 38:30.030 --> 38:32.410 of these budgeting changes that they to make to balance the budget. 38:32.810 --> 38:33.650 So the democrat. 38:34.660 --> 38:37.190 It's been getting hammered for voting for the all throne everything 38:37.190 --> 38:40.210 else is running ads with all sir to teachers and students and 38:40.210 --> 38:43.720 parents saying he wants to have bigger class sizes that is initiated 38:43.810 --> 38:47.030 the senate has nothing to do with but it did correlate polls 38:47.030 --> 38:49.920 really well and people are frustrated about their class sizes 38:49.920 --> 38:53.040 for their kids and so democrats are trying to make the election 38:53.200 --> 38:57.430 not about iraq obama and and and about some of these more local 38:57.430 --> 39:00.100 issues are more all kind of concerns that are individual to the 39:00.100 --> 39:03.960 state one of the biggest dynamic. So it will in terms of that 39:03.960 --> 39:06.900 the challenge the democrats have is you're having republicans 39:06.900 --> 39:09.940 run these ads against you it's a you vote with obama and 99 person 39:09.940 --> 39:13.390 of the time are 97 person a time or 95% a time depending on the state. 39:14.460 --> 39:18.480 And you want to say it no one independent I'd. I do what I think 39:18.480 --> 39:22.360 is right for the state but you're also very worried about turning 39:22.360 --> 39:26.330 off the woodvilles up because if you really are that independent 39:26.330 --> 39:28.740 from the president why should they shop and vote for two. 39:29.270 --> 39:32.060 An SUV that one of the big things that that happens with his 39:32.060 --> 39:36.370 African americans. So that uh the big concern about democrats 39:36.370 --> 39:39.190 is Dropbox voters people who actually didn't vote for the first 39:39.190 --> 39:45.220 time in 2008 in 2012 for obama they right to stirred fit the 39:45.220 --> 39:47.800 special up with suckles carolina which was the president target 39:47.800 --> 39:53.130 Apple times he won in 2008 it lost in 2012 and soon now the democratic 39:53.130 --> 39:56.630 senator there in also in the we cno the were up nearly 40% of 39:56.630 --> 40:00.640 population is African American you one in you won a ton of. 40:01.910 --> 40:05.410 What I said it in the we see on a only 70% of whites approve 40:05.410 --> 40:09.330 of of obama has so you can get too close to obama but you also 40:09.330 --> 40:12.650 would love your for a bombing help the Rue de African americans 40:12.910 --> 40:16.240 who otherwise are unlikely to show up invoke to come out and 40:16.240 --> 40:19.870 vote SUV. That's that's the the delicate balancing act system 40:19.870 --> 40:23.980 times you'll see democrats send meal worse. So this on TV were 40:23.980 --> 40:27.510 anyone can see a couple 70 or so houses that they know our African American. 40:28.010 --> 40:30.640 You know with pictures of the president and them together and 40:30.640 --> 40:31.360 then they'll send it. 40:31.970 --> 40:33.520 Mailer stood to. 40:34.360 --> 40:37.390 White households are other households that sad very independent 40:37.390 --> 40:41.060 and I don't take orders from anyone. So that that is partly how 40:41.060 --> 40:44.200 they do it but it's very hard and sometimes democrats get in 40:44.200 --> 40:47.540 trouble when you kind of there's this guy in Colorado into my 40:47.540 --> 40:48.660 current market all. 40:49.310 --> 40:53.700 Said the white house is spirited media people. Oh why does officials 40:53.700 --> 40:56.090 run away when I counter them because they now on pulling their 40:56.090 --> 40:59.810 feet to the fire and a ever and kind of laughed at that because 40:59.810 --> 41:02.940 you a pretty reliable democratic vote. He doesn't have a reputation 41:02.940 --> 41:06.270 as a maverick or anything and so you know the he kind of got 41:06.300 --> 41:09.410 made fun of for are trying to sound more independent them. 41:09.530 --> 41:10.570 Yeah actually get this. 41:12.170 --> 41:12.620 All right.. They're. 41:13.780 --> 41:20.460 They're. The Good I'm I'm time looking for the all string newspaper. 41:20.460 --> 41:20.930 The peso. 41:21.470 --> 41:25.850 Um get can explain it dates a SWAT extends to do. 41:26.420 --> 41:31.180 Of recent changes in votes a 19 balls and the legal talents is 41:31.180 --> 41:34.920 an press of them having been overturned by courts. Up would affect 41:34.920 --> 41:38.420 the races when it disenfranchised people who would have voted 41:38.420 --> 41:40.440 for the democrats will win draw that drives them. 41:41.030 --> 41:44.390 Um you know the two races ching in the proper way to citizens 41:44.390 --> 41:46.670 of make a statement and then secondly. 41:47.340 --> 41:49.570 Um this didn't also spoke of doubts um. 41:50.780 --> 41:54.060 It's controlled being rested away from the traditional pop sees. 41:54.670 --> 41:58.300 By these outside groups that I can sculptor Oprah's pair attendees 41:58.300 --> 42:02.430 things uh to what extent piece this in giza races now in and 42:02.430 --> 42:05.390 and the way the candidates were chosen and the Um. 42:05.990 --> 42:08.920 And the campaigns of being raw mrs soothing robot that democrats 42:08.920 --> 42:10.730 the republicans are is becoming more. 42:11.320 --> 42:14.500 I'm more jsut of decentralized thing chief. 42:15.020 --> 42:17.940 Yeah absolutely to also important questions all try because I 42:17.940 --> 42:20.780 never saw questions. All treaded living in a kind of more quickly 42:20.780 --> 42:26.710 but and voter I D in 2012 it. Absolutely helped motivate in drive 42:26.900 --> 42:31.810 people to the polls and do a good democrats and present obama 42:31.810 --> 42:35.890 very successfully use and abuse restrictive motor idealise that 42:35.890 --> 42:37.510 are aimed eight that kind of. 42:38.280 --> 42:41.930 Preventing democrats from expanding the electorate to to their 42:41.930 --> 42:46.280 advantage in ohio and Pennsylvania and in corks in 22 over actually 42:46.280 --> 42:49.490 ruling in democrats favor then and there is a supreme court decision 42:49.490 --> 42:53.090 in 20 13 that's sort of change the dynamic there this year of 42:53.130 --> 42:54.420 the quarter's by a large. 42:55.720 --> 43:00.720 All the republican efforts to limit early voting to win that 43:00.750 --> 43:02.270 the uh that. 43:02.810 --> 43:05.890 The ability to register to vote on the same day is the election. 43:06.430 --> 43:09.860 And sedate success floyd did kind of able to to put a lot of 43:09.860 --> 43:10.960 the sings and do a fact. 43:11.800 --> 43:16.500 That at the margins I think it it does help republicans of but 43:16.530 --> 43:20.370 I don't think I think that it's an important issue to does get 43:20.370 --> 43:24.060 to who we are as a democracy in and enfranchisement in and do 43:24.060 --> 43:27.680 we won as many people voting as as possible republicans have 43:27.680 --> 43:31.330 legitimate fear is about voter fraud and and people showing up 43:31.400 --> 43:34.800 multiple places in voting on the same dead in are the few can 43:34.800 --> 43:36.980 register to vote when you show up with the polling place. 43:37.850 --> 43:40.790 It it you actually means Terry could go-to for from polling places 43:40.790 --> 43:45.290 and and register and and then vote and republicans say that it's 43:45.290 --> 43:48.430 common sense the you should be required to have an idea card 43:48.900 --> 43:52.790 unity you should show driver's license to to be able to vote 43:52.790 --> 43:55.300 because otherwise you can come and say I you know your someone 43:55.300 --> 43:56.850 else and in cast their ballot. 43:57.650 --> 44:01.710 And not be punished. So republicans are just doing this stood 44:01.710 --> 44:04.520 to try and restrict African American turnout or are we gonna 44:04.520 --> 44:06.930 turn out of the poor will orbit they actually to like they have 44:06.930 --> 44:10.470 real genuine reasons that they're trying to do it. I do think 44:10.470 --> 44:15.200 that it does sort of a hell galvanize the African American community uh. 44:15.230 --> 44:18.020 It's it insanity versus like the wisconsin governor strays for 44:18.020 --> 44:21.770 the applauded a federal appeals court just upheld Wisconsin's voter. 44:21.770 --> 44:24.820 Idea lot which was passed by republican legislature that looks 44:24.820 --> 44:28.180 like a really close race. If it's a one person or 2% race. 44:28.420 --> 44:32.360 I do think in a voter I de la can actually have impact that the 44:32.360 --> 44:35.610 martians its argument dramatically swaying. The election's one 44:35.610 --> 44:40.110 wire the other bet if you if you per event of a thousand people 44:40.110 --> 44:45.320 in more walkie affirmed from voting. Then you potentially your 44:45.320 --> 44:46.070 your euro. 44:46.760 --> 44:51.030 Upping the republican debt re-elected of on that that second 44:51.030 --> 44:54.830 question about party tiny one of the things that top republicans 44:54.830 --> 44:57.730 in top democrats to me is it's harder than ever to recruit people 44:57.730 --> 45:01.060 to run for office in part because if you run. 45:02.030 --> 45:04.390 Because of all this outside money that we are talking about all 45:04.390 --> 45:08.460 the super packs and and A way to super packs mostly run negative 45:08.460 --> 45:11.570 ads to really don't run positive ads that all that uh one acid. 45:11.600 --> 45:13.780 You know what a great guy you are a. 45:14.300 --> 45:18.330 He you out most it you're gonna spear in spends 75 for some of 45:18.330 --> 45:21.370 the time that you're running for office raising money calling 45:21.370 --> 45:24.740 people and asking them for money out because you can only raise 45:24.980 --> 45:28.840 of you know maximum of a of work a Laurent $2,000 from people 45:29.060 --> 45:32.220 per person. So you have to call out of people are super pack 45:32.220 --> 45:34.370 can take you know one 10 million dollar check. 45:35.040 --> 45:37.850 And in C you're working really hard to raise all this money that 45:37.910 --> 45:40.150 you get Tyson the majority of their time as a candidate. 45:40.150 --> 45:43.330 That's credible and a little than secret about running for office 45:43.790 --> 45:44.410 and then. 45:45.050 --> 45:46.260 You out most. 45:46.900 --> 45:51.460 Are gonna get 20% of the ads about your race on TV 20 25 percent. 45:51.960 --> 45:52.810 So if you're running. 45:53.340 --> 45:56.060 If you're running if firmer Schellmann running for senate in 45:56.060 --> 45:59.470 georgia you can be an amazing fundraiser. She's raising a lot 45:59.470 --> 46:04.660 of money very impressive quarter worse and she use 75 million dollars 46:04.660 --> 46:07.800 to be spent and I race and she'll spend about 18 million other 46:07.850 --> 46:11.490 idiots in asked that ensue in and some of that is running their 46:11.490 --> 46:14.920 campaigning having campaign over haven't but as a result you 46:14.920 --> 46:18.040 get very little of the say about your raison about use of most 46:18.040 --> 46:21.440 of the ads are gonna be sang the are terrible person and figure 46:21.440 --> 46:25.220 giving money to Hamas which is what one of the ad says and up 46:25.330 --> 46:29.710 it added these awful a kind of attack ads and uh in in. 46:31.300 --> 46:34.510 In you don't really get to wait you don't have control over the message. 46:34.780 --> 46:38.540 So that is immensely frustrating for campaigns in the committee's too. 46:39.160 --> 46:42.310 It's a technical you legally that there are the courts require 46:42.310 --> 46:45.470 that the super packs be an dependent from the party's says actually 46:45.470 --> 46:49.410 a week old to this says serious crime to cordon eight spending 46:49.410 --> 46:53.550 between the official republican committee and American crossroads 46:53.550 --> 46:56.300 are americans for prosperity other see certain things where you 46:56.300 --> 46:59.260 can talk about some stop a not other stuff in what he civil to 46:59.260 --> 47:01.840 each other socially it in the can be kind of an awkward dance 47:02.050 --> 47:05.690 sometimes the same political consulting firm will have people 47:05.690 --> 47:08.920 be and of buck out a fire Wall work though be sitting iraq cuba 47:08.920 --> 47:11.240 call and one person would be working on the super pack of one 47:11.240 --> 47:14.100 person be helping the campaign and but they're not allied to 47:14.100 --> 47:17.130 talk about it because if they do it's a it's a chronic uh in 47:17.130 --> 47:20.220 some cases you have a has been working for super pack and the 47:20.220 --> 47:23.550 white working for the campaign uh which is gonna kind of just 47:23.830 --> 47:27.470 it's a all in some ways like el laughable farce of sometimes 47:27.470 --> 47:30.580 were really the has been in the white for talking about these 47:30.580 --> 47:33.450 things you know uh before the putting in an email. 47:34.120 --> 47:36.670 This but you never what are you gonna get how are you really 47:36.670 --> 47:39.830 get it gonna get out of ensued someone's it. It is a little bit 47:39.830 --> 47:43.650 solely and preposterous but there's no question that uh that 47:43.770 --> 47:47.430 the party committees are west powerful than ever before in the 47:47.430 --> 47:51.470 19 seventies to a republican national committee the democratic 47:51.470 --> 47:54.830 national committee had is so much more influence over spending 47:54.830 --> 47:57.130 and so much more work of the percentage of of. 47:57.680 --> 48:01.060 Political spending came from those core committees they still 48:01.060 --> 48:03.750 matter they're still rel that and is still the to kind of drive 48:03.750 --> 48:07.350 the the conversation and set the agenda of but there was powerful 48:07.350 --> 48:08.720 them and that have that. 48:09.980 --> 48:13.390 All played limit yourself to one question Sophie can get other 48:13.390 --> 48:14.960 people to. Ask. 48:15.470 --> 48:19.160 Yeah. My isn't to really and thespian. So poke a consistent from 48:19.160 --> 48:19.670 son cree. 48:20.670 --> 48:24.230 The I like best get in. 48:24.800 --> 48:28.670 If if if there is it any and are missing the most imposed important 48:28.670 --> 48:30.170 very hopeful of factor. 48:30.690 --> 48:35.140 All that can affect the genre at this fear that today and hopefully 48:35.140 --> 48:38.230 election is a bit during that remained the remaining three mix 48:38.620 --> 48:42.310 and that the peace and what what the basic and civic estimates 48:42.680 --> 48:45.690 is there any car a bit of president obama can't play. 48:46.590 --> 48:50.400 And for the The democrats to keep the senate. 48:52.190 --> 48:55.660 As a that little door reuse forty. What's the october surprise. 48:56.010 --> 48:58.820 What's the thing is gonna happen in october that that we can 48:58.820 --> 49:01.600 never expecting and there's always something in 19 62 was the 49:01.600 --> 49:05.290 cuban missile crisis. No one was a that changes the dynamic of 49:05.290 --> 49:06.880 those elections of. 49:07.440 --> 49:10.020 Yeah I think some people think the ball of the a bowl outbreak 49:10.020 --> 49:10.960 on American soil. 49:11.480 --> 49:14.960 Might be in october surprise. I don't know what political impact 49:14.960 --> 49:20.010 that has a hand I soul. Yeah I think that that is it did your 49:20.010 --> 49:22.910 traditional American auctions don't turn on foreign policy. 49:22.910 --> 49:25.370 I'm us it's that the trip set of the ID number get the church 49:25.370 --> 49:29.710 set of iraq uh. But I do think it's part of the the broader narrative. 49:29.740 --> 49:33.040 What I said chaos selection were people just feel like people 49:33.040 --> 49:35.440 feel like the world is out of control and 49:36.650 --> 49:39.320 The American president is in keeping it in control it's a tender 49:39.320 --> 49:43.000 box it. He's not putting out the fire and and so I think. 49:43.600 --> 49:47.070 We'll what can obama due date to to change the dynamic. I think 49:47.070 --> 49:51.280 he with bolton L a dinners the that I think he's very frustrated 49:51.280 --> 49:54.430 because basically all he can really do to help his party keep 49:54.430 --> 49:57.270 the senate is raise money inter is a lot of money is a very good 49:57.270 --> 49:58.980 fundraisers doing a lot of fundraising. 49:59.500 --> 50:02.400 Uh but he can't fight are consigned a really good speech. 50:03.060 --> 50:05.790 And that's very frustrating the M because in the past these you 50:05.790 --> 50:09.620 know I think he was able to or even on I walk just 81 twice michelle 50:09.620 --> 50:13.290 obama's gonna be an I'll it's more of that he can go it's just 50:13.290 --> 50:15.790 the would-be it would be politically her fall to the democrats 50:15.790 --> 50:18.570 are so he's not going to his advisor se tone that. It's I don't 50:18.570 --> 50:21.280 think that there's any one thing you can do to kinda to turn 50:21.280 --> 50:22.110 things around the sport. 50:23.740 --> 50:29.470 Hair. Oh my name's a Gore mask you from russian as bait for a 50:29.470 --> 50:34.020 I recently seen the M commentary beckons over to a. 50:35.180 --> 50:36.930 A scroll tom Adrian um. 50:37.660 --> 50:41.280 Media that he basically will same that to woes in man senate 50:41.310 --> 50:45.310 to with them to be him so much frustrating for a bomb because 50:45.310 --> 50:49.030 it's the last is a possibility to put the agenda run feel lost power. 50:49.610 --> 50:53.170 Map up on the other hand it will give republicans said the tends 50:53.170 --> 50:56.590 to force. So there again damned prepare themselves for loyalty 50:56.590 --> 50:58.260 cells and 16 elections VIC loans. 50:58.770 --> 51:02.640 Um as they can not wins the senate now I'm just to blame and 51:02.640 --> 51:04.990 um bone. But two-wing deeper the bench elevation because I was 51:04.990 --> 51:08.520 in sixteens a new is a need some positive agenda. A war to the 51:08.520 --> 51:11.450 same as a oprah arrests of that the republicans you when we named 51:11.450 --> 51:14.010 the senate to a loan whatever um. 51:15.020 --> 51:18.480 I can filibuster a possibility so world from my viewpoint or 51:18.480 --> 51:22.830 your what is the advantage so. For with Atlantis raul republicans 51:22.870 --> 51:24.450 to get to say when the senate. 51:25.110 --> 51:27.690 Was or a car that republicans will be able to set fit the bill 51:27.690 --> 51:30.870 have a lot more control over the budget for example on government 51:30.870 --> 51:33.870 spending obama's gonna have to negotiate if if mishra calls the 51:33.870 --> 51:36.410 sentiment are really are bomb asked the when a cystic issue with 51:36.410 --> 51:40.040 mitch McConnell yet to get republican votes for anything and 51:40.040 --> 51:42.720 as a result and ordered it republican votes to keep the government 51:42.720 --> 51:46.020 running you're gonna have to compromise in and make agreements 51:46.020 --> 51:48.250 that you would know otherwise next at the practical level. 51:48.430 --> 51:51.560 You do get to shape the conversation uh uh there would be a lot 51:51.560 --> 51:55.390 of show votes if republicans control majority the next two years. 51:55.580 --> 51:58.900 I think you'd see a vote on trying to restrict that informal 51:58.900 --> 52:02.490 protection agency from regulating a carbon initial admissions 52:02.490 --> 52:05.710 alerted the global warming a you would you would death only have 52:05.950 --> 52:07.420 a lot of votes that that. 52:08.240 --> 52:11.020 Republicans new we're actually gonna pass but at the same time 52:11.020 --> 52:13.940 democrats are taking a lot of show votes this year on things 52:13.940 --> 52:17.210 that they know have no chance of passing because as as that trucker 52:17.210 --> 52:19.990 hammer noted in the column that you reference republicans are 52:19.990 --> 52:23.090 always been a block anything sue democrats can pass equal pay 52:23.090 --> 52:25.910 legislation of the senate knowing full. Well the they don't have 52:25.910 --> 52:28.750 to worry about making. Sure all the dea tells arrive in it because 52:28.750 --> 52:31.550 is never actually to become law in a because it'll never goal 52:31.550 --> 52:34.450 by the republican house seat can you don't have to actually. 52:35.130 --> 52:37.580 Do the due diligence that you put if you're writing bills that 52:37.610 --> 52:41.110 were meant to become Wall so that they are a lot of democrats 52:41.110 --> 52:44.940 I talk to in the senate who hope that republicans. 52:45.620 --> 52:49.110 When the senate because it will good you will give them a chance 52:49.260 --> 52:52.890 there's been the republicans more successful in 2010 running 52:52.890 --> 52:56.300 as it is it what now many republicans admit was the party of nepal. 52:56.810 --> 53:00.640 No we're against a Baba cared. No organs cap and trade no we're against. 53:01.150 --> 53:04.390 Your whatever and when you actually are in control you can't 53:04.580 --> 53:07.960 be a party of no you have to have an agenda yet to have I dios 53:08.300 --> 53:13.220 and In 2012 mitt Romney and I spent all I spent a big chunk of 53:13.220 --> 53:16.830 but 20 12 traveling around the country that runs plane was seen 53:16.830 --> 53:19.330 and get the same speech over and over done but I got to know 53:19.330 --> 53:22.760 his campaign in and watch shiver closely and they mistakenly 53:22.760 --> 53:26.300 strategically made the decision that the 20 12 campaign should 53:26.300 --> 53:30.690 be a referendum on brock obama yes or no should brock obama get 53:30.690 --> 53:34.440 four more years as president because they believed that it if 53:34.570 --> 53:37.410 it you know if if it was about his to worry about are often or 53:37.410 --> 53:38.750 four years ago they would wait. 53:39.470 --> 53:43.650 Uh but you're on people were smart enough to not played that 53:43.650 --> 53:48.270 game and that democratic super cracks in and others invoked. 53:48.270 --> 53:52.470 So the president himself helps make the race of choice for action. 53:53.000 --> 53:57.250 And then when mitt Romney's talked about the 47% and you know 53:57.250 --> 54:01.360 it made a bunch of your mates in the state sen uh in in kind 54:01.360 --> 54:04.540 of going after his business Courier on TV all-time ole. 54:04.650 --> 54:06.850 There was an uh. Oh was a choice selection do what about ardi. 54:06.850 --> 54:11.490 What Romney the president and see republicans had to succeed 54:11.490 --> 54:14.480 in the past five making a right yes or no referendum and are 54:14.480 --> 54:17.710 not been able to do that as much of a controls sadat because 54:17.940 --> 54:20.230 if hillary clinton is the democratic nominee for president in 54:20.230 --> 54:25.280 26teen she'll will run against congressional republicans. 54:25.790 --> 54:28.930 Because iran and obama will be able to set I wanted you to and 54:28.970 --> 54:32.110 I'm as frustrated as anybody that nothing skin in don. I wanna 54:32.110 --> 54:33.340 do this and this in this but. 54:34.280 --> 54:37.500 Commerce is blocking the from duty and to be able to point and 54:37.530 --> 54:40.730 ecommerce is a model a concert of sake house republicans said 54:41.050 --> 54:44.200 that's the that I think you know it's it's to remains to be seen 54:44.200 --> 54:47.230 I think both sides are kinda trying day dame out what it's gonna 54:47.230 --> 54:49.300 look like if republicans do and people in the sun. 54:51.560 --> 54:54.530 The most that Ginnie with this history get that the question 54:54.530 --> 54:59.010 immigration hall much the was of that the fact that present about 54:59.010 --> 55:03.470 my decided not to use except to g20 action before the mid to 55:03.700 --> 55:07.480 a election all what what kind of a new park does does it have 55:07.510 --> 55:10.170 on the races were that is a big deal for due to bring of integration 55:10.170 --> 55:12.810 as a subject that neglected. It is one of the issues that I do 55:12.810 --> 55:16.050 think it's all democrats and a lot of the state's because the 55:16.050 --> 55:19.990 map is being played out in the uh in in these these conservative 55:19.990 --> 55:23.440 States integration is unpopular democrats who voted for immigration 55:23.440 --> 55:26.440 are getting hammered the for the cover as a bowl a possible Oster 55:26.440 --> 55:30.450 getting hammered for it and then I do think it's a really poor 55:30.590 --> 55:34.470 if eugene she team loses in new hampshire make immigration and 55:34.470 --> 55:37.970 eyes for a big part of the air big part of that story. I don't 55:37.970 --> 55:40.910 think immigration is gonna happen. He Marco Rubio who's gonna 55:40.910 --> 55:43.980 run for president uh the for a center use part of an dischi a 55:43.980 --> 55:47.200 Shindes and the group to pass immigration bill now he's kind 55:47.200 --> 55:50.750 of walked away from it and relies is it's it's politically hopeful 55:51.020 --> 55:54.630 and and I think ordered the is gonna be have a very hard time 55:54.630 --> 55:58.210 wanting in Iowa the caucuses. He could so what am but because 55:58.240 --> 56:00.510 immigration is gonna be an anchor on him and he hoped that it 56:00.510 --> 56:03.490 was gonna be as big signature compost meant to show that you 56:03.490 --> 56:06.260 can get things done. But immigration is the fall in net negative 56:06.260 --> 56:07.770 this cycle on the other hand. 56:08.910 --> 56:11.930 Republicans lost the presidential campaign in in 20 12 because 56:11.930 --> 56:16.510 mitt Romney in part only got 27% of for you to roll up or so 56:16.770 --> 56:20.120 of white tea. No votes and and if republicans are only getting 56:20.120 --> 56:24.430 a quarter of the old wife tina votes in places like Colorado 56:24.430 --> 56:26.800 they're going to continue to lose the presidency. 56:27.440 --> 56:31.510 And and said after the 20 12 campaign republican set of that 56:31.680 --> 56:34.700 kind of a smart republican strategists in washington said we're 56:34.700 --> 56:37.630 going to keep losing presidential actions were to be a minority 56:37.630 --> 56:39.640 party in this country. If we don't. 56:40.200 --> 56:43.360 If we don't singing you to not immigration. So that that's probably 56:43.360 --> 56:46.370 why marker Rubio did you know in in in in 20 13 it looks like 56:46.370 --> 56:49.730 immigration reform could pass and now because of this border 56:49.730 --> 56:53.120 crisis and because of everything else immigration is ripple for 56:53.120 --> 56:57.270 muzzling unpopular and said to win these races in in candidate 56:57.270 --> 57:00.740 with the shelter mindset republicans are taking a very hard line 57:01.080 --> 57:04.880 on immigration and I do think it could end up really hurting 57:04.880 --> 57:07.970 them in 26teen or 20 20 and a lot of the republican. 57:08.680 --> 57:10.660 People's work out of running for governor center. Right. 57:10.660 --> 57:14.250 Now are gonna have a lot of explaining to do with that Hispanic 57:14.250 --> 57:18.340 populations in States that are all become competitive like Arizona 57:18.750 --> 57:23.030 a or georgia or taxis maybe in a in a decade or so and so that's 57:23.060 --> 57:24.980 there's that candidate short term long term. 57:26.270 --> 57:28.680 Difference. Pioneer yeah. 57:31.130 --> 57:35.610 And Many was some of getting out the Swedish Nisbet done is they've 57:35.610 --> 57:38.800 been I wonder about that what do you think the 10 upwardly how 57:38.800 --> 57:42.400 many people that actually come about I read somewhere that republicans 57:42.400 --> 57:47.540 are more a and um pros to to vote to that Lopez he an hour at 57:47.540 --> 57:51.250 the sense a would that be of the actual population in the States. 57:51.300 --> 57:54.710 Right was a I my home state of Minnesota uh. It's we had the 57:54.710 --> 57:57.150 highest turnout consistently in the country where fervor proud 57:57.150 --> 58:01.610 of a it you know in that seven need some person people but it's 58:01.610 --> 58:05.250 still haven't been provoke people tour eligible and some of the state's. 58:05.500 --> 58:08.680 I think because they're so many attack ads that actually will 58:08.680 --> 58:09.610 suppress the vote. 58:10.180 --> 58:13.020 So the state like Kentucky there on people who don't like mitch 58:13.020 --> 58:16.430 McConnell but they also don't like brock obama and so they're 58:16.430 --> 58:19.020 gonna see the zed stay safe you of a democrat or butting for 58:19.020 --> 58:21.970 brock obama and and be so their ad saying what a bag I that's 58:21.970 --> 58:24.260 what collars and so they're gonna decide does not to show a. 58:24.770 --> 58:27.980 Sigh I think a lot of these and negative ads to depress turnout. 58:28.170 --> 58:30.910 I don't know what the percentage is gonna be but I do think there's 58:30.980 --> 58:34.070 there's always a huge Dropbox between a presidential campaign 58:34.070 --> 58:37.730 in the mid term elections and it's absolutely true that the people 58:37.730 --> 58:41.150 who show up consists of when a vote including in mid term auctions 58:41.390 --> 58:45.170 tend to be whiter. They tend to be older and eternity more conservative 58:45.390 --> 58:48.180 and those are of republican. 58:48.700 --> 58:52.490 Demographics and sit it decana favors republicans democrats over 58:52.490 --> 58:55.760 told us about that and sit there making an unprecedented effort 58:55.980 --> 58:59.190 to invest in get out the vote efforts the old efforts to the 58:59.190 --> 59:02.280 democratic cetera campaign committee spinning 60 million dollars 59:02.550 --> 59:06.480 on a project a nice target States aimed at a registering African 59:06.480 --> 59:09.630 americans in young people because a lot of the senate race circling 59:09.630 --> 59:11.830 out in places that were never competitive in the presidential 59:11.830 --> 59:15.950 auction is obama work to look hard to register folks to vote 59:15.950 --> 59:19.870 in ohio. But Louisiana was ever competitive him in a presidential 59:19.870 --> 59:22.520 campaign said there wasn't the money that was spent on trying 59:22.520 --> 59:25.990 to register new voters and and get new people excited and motivated 59:26.210 --> 59:29.300 democrats because they're so we're about this this target doubt 59:29.360 --> 59:33.090 or are spending a huge loaded the that in all ask at the stunning 59:33.090 --> 59:36.430 millions of dollars to register a ask emote. 59:36.950 --> 59:41.350 Literally asking those alaska natives a tear register to vote 59:41.350 --> 59:44.820 who'd never voted before and to get then devote democrat and 59:44.820 --> 59:47.870 so that the it's it will work. I don't know their that's one 59:47.870 --> 59:50.550 of one of a big kind of questions of that the final month is 59:50.850 --> 59:53.920 argued democrats talk the big game about how they're kinetic 59:53.920 --> 59:56.640 span the a like treating that always people to to come out who've 59:56.640 --> 59:59.460 never come out before and that that's gonna be another secret 59:59.460 --> 01:00:03.100 to success. I think it probably helps all will but in a close 01:00:03.100 --> 01:00:05.350 race a could make the difference. But if you're gonna lose by 01:00:05.350 --> 01:00:08.180 10 points in a midi that makes it a five queries instead of a 01:00:08.180 --> 01:00:11.590 10 point race said it's it's it's calf to be determined. 01:00:11.870 --> 01:00:13.190 What what the turnout will o'clock. 01:00:13.970 --> 01:00:15.050 One more question. 01:00:16.230 --> 01:00:16.730 Right they. Are. 01:00:20.800 --> 01:00:23.150 Hi bill Martian Gideon using candidate. 01:00:24.010 --> 01:00:27.170 In to follow the governor races it all idea fall for closely 01:00:27.170 --> 01:00:32.180 a um war DC is gonna happen with carter and and and tortured 01:00:32.540 --> 01:00:36.220 this idea to do record and a daughter slices. There's a why really 01:00:36.220 --> 01:00:40.040 fun ones are apiece last week ranging the 10 most vulnerable. 01:00:40.540 --> 01:00:43.240 But incoming governor PS. So there's actually a bunch of governor 01:00:43.240 --> 01:00:47.090 she could lose his an interesting story that uh is is actually 01:00:47.090 --> 01:00:50.810 significant because someone like scout walker whoever Windows 01:00:50.810 --> 01:00:54.070 from taking on the Union's is vulnerable him in wisconsin and 01:00:54.100 --> 01:00:57.910 nathan deal was on that what's tease that uh our most fed governor georgia. 01:00:58.220 --> 01:01:02.910 He was a longtime congressman and a a young guy he's in the States 01:01:02.910 --> 01:01:07.130 senate very kind of like the bold dynamic and arms are not a 01:01:07.290 --> 01:01:10.810 it's of jason carter insert like jason carter the democrat is 01:01:10.810 --> 01:01:14.200 jimmy carter scranton and that's what makes I raise protect ill. 01:01:14.200 --> 01:01:18.400 Interesting. The the thing is like nathan deals not that unpopular 01:01:18.400 --> 01:01:21.340 is not isn't popular is this someone like sam brown back in Kansas 01:01:21.340 --> 01:01:23.580 right now and the other are. 01:01:24.100 --> 01:01:27.180 Challenge for democrats is that while it's seat is starting to 01:01:27.180 --> 01:01:31.310 trend a more democratic it still is a fairly conservative state 01:01:31.310 --> 01:01:34.900 in of rural republican year and uh so I think carter does have 01:01:34.900 --> 01:01:40.080 a chance but uh that be a that it's it's probably not gonna happen. 01:01:40.080 --> 01:01:43.250 Although there. I watched action washed to the georgia governors 01:01:43.250 --> 01:01:46.550 debate tonight before last and it was it was a very good debate 01:01:46.750 --> 01:01:47.930 that they have it did. 01:01:48.500 --> 01:01:51.930 Fault argued really strongly and then that george are race will 01:01:51.930 --> 01:01:56.960 go to a runoff if no one gets to 50% sue that there's a Libertarian 01:01:56.960 --> 01:01:58.890 in a can and candidate and there are a city debt. 01:01:59.860 --> 01:02:05.310 Five or 6% which could keep the winner from from getting to 50% 01:02:05.720 --> 01:02:09.810 and sedan Derby a two-way runoff and now would favor republicans 01:02:09.810 --> 01:02:12.650 because you you know we talk about the mid term electric favoring 01:02:12.650 --> 01:02:13.780 republicans but. 01:02:14.470 --> 01:02:18.120 The genie wary that kind of not long after christmas runoff. 01:02:18.620 --> 01:02:21.670 It's gonna be very hard for jason carter return African americans 01:02:21.670 --> 01:02:25.280 in and a lot of people who don't typically vote. But candidate 01:02:25.310 --> 01:02:26.230 this still work. 01:02:27.080 --> 01:02:29.960 Republican voters will shell out and so it didn't mr. 01:02:29.960 --> 01:02:32.920 Runoff it's very hard good to see al harder could win. 01:02:33.610 --> 01:02:38.020 Did for him and it's a it's a it's a it's a fast a dynamic and 01:02:38.020 --> 01:02:42.590 uh some sedate like he he's actually teasing first kind of care 01:02:42.590 --> 01:02:43.220 for about it. 01:02:43.790 --> 01:02:46.740 Uh and I I can cindy some some good examples. I'm happy to to 01:02:46.740 --> 01:02:48.940 fight them for you of of where. 01:02:49.600 --> 01:02:52.700 Jason carter said the distance and self from his grandfather 01:02:52.700 --> 01:02:56.080 would erode up an article about the middle east and foreign policy 01:02:56.390 --> 01:02:59.740 and he sees credit had to say we're older defer enter and uh. 01:02:59.770 --> 01:03:04.630 Oh grandpa gonna the But it and up but other times he's definitely 01:03:05.020 --> 01:03:08.340 invoked his grandfather in used his grandfather's that to try 01:03:08.340 --> 01:03:11.000 and and you know help him in it certainly helped him raise money 01:03:11.230 --> 01:03:14.230 and get an audience ways with people that might not otherwise 01:03:14.650 --> 01:03:17.170 pale lot of attention. So that that's a are are really fun or 01:03:17.170 --> 01:03:20.520 is to watch there's a lot of really fun races to watch a and 01:03:20.550 --> 01:03:23.800 in I think there's a lot of fun personalities increases. It is 01:03:23.800 --> 01:03:27.120 could take PR question to be around and have to get to to take 01:03:27.120 --> 01:03:29.970 a couple morkel questions after but up. 01:03:30.770 --> 01:03:34.440 Yeah it's it's a fun process that that these races are exciting 01:03:34.770 --> 01:03:38.690 and uh and and I know I kinda sometimes get a cynical view of 01:03:38.690 --> 01:03:41.940 that but when you go out to these races and you talk to voters 01:03:42.380 --> 01:03:45.640 while they're relatively few States that are deciding what's 01:03:45.640 --> 01:03:48.600 gonna happen. Estee like I walk people are paying close attention. 01:03:48.600 --> 01:03:51.730 Ended is kinda cool because a lot of people are falling these 01:03:51.730 --> 01:03:54.940 races closely in and they they're watching the ads and they're 01:03:54.940 --> 01:03:58.610 watching the debates that are now on basically every night and 01:03:58.610 --> 01:04:02.580 uh uh and it's kinda it's it's a neat because this is one people 01:04:02.580 --> 01:04:05.370 that ditched choose their leaders in and it does have an impact 01:04:05.370 --> 01:04:09.400 it it it. It does matter in and uh inside of my job. Thank you 01:04:09.400 --> 01:04:11.320 so much for your time and for your. Questions. 01:04:16.660 --> 01:04:17.310 And then the 01:04:18.920 --> 01:04:19.450 He said..