WEBVTT 00:04.870 --> 00:07.480 Everyone could take their seats for the next. Session. 00:12.780 --> 00:13.540 Thanks very much. 00:15.640 --> 00:19.390 Good afternoon my name is that dan free at Iowa I and chief technology 00:19.390 --> 00:22.680 officer and director of cyber programs the sense of the field 00:22.680 --> 00:24.970 a cyber programs the department descends. 00:25.580 --> 00:28.810 In the office of the chief information officer most all member 00:28.810 --> 00:30.870 of the Aspen institute homeland security group. 00:31.520 --> 00:34.390 And here into to introduce the next session national security 00:34.390 --> 00:35.450 and homeland security. 00:36.030 --> 00:39.260 During the session three keen former high level officials give 00:39.260 --> 00:43.160 their perspective is on the various threats facing the us here 00:43.190 --> 00:44.380 at home and abroad. 00:45.160 --> 00:47.870 The session will be moderated by michael Crowley chief foreign 00:47.870 --> 00:51.270 affairs correspondent a time. Michael covers foreign policy and 00:51.270 --> 00:54.280 national security and he's written on topics from the Iranian 00:54.280 --> 00:58.350 nuclear negotiations I to the U.S. sadie relationship to brock 00:58.350 --> 01:00.190 obama's counterterrorism policies. 01:00.820 --> 01:04.080 His recent time covers includes stories on the mind. That's what 01:04.080 --> 01:07.640 a me including and brock obama's syria policy and with that the 01:07.640 --> 01:08.470 force years michael. 01:09.280 --> 01:12.770 Right. That's everybody good afternoon hope you had a good lunch. 01:13.460 --> 01:16.000 And a welcome to this can all which. 01:16.630 --> 01:21.860 Will to consider the intersection of national security and foreign 01:21.860 --> 01:26.100 policy with homeland security and we're gonna convert several 01:26.100 --> 01:28.930 different topics. But I think our guiding start here is how do 01:29.150 --> 01:32.810 policy decisions made in washington about the U.S. role in the 01:32.810 --> 01:39.510 world a a facts relates you intersect with the security of emerging 01:39.510 --> 01:40.610 home and the American people. 01:41.310 --> 01:44.510 Uh and certainly many risk indices and a reminder that these 01:44.510 --> 01:47.500 two are very intertwined uh in a fundamental way. 01:48.310 --> 01:51.710 Of ought does quickly introduce the catalyst a starting from 01:51.710 --> 01:55.570 the far are and I david hayman is a former assistant secretary 01:55.570 --> 01:59.140 for policy the department home insecurity. I'd john never ponce 01:59.140 --> 02:01.830 is former director of national intelligence and now vice president 02:02.030 --> 02:05.160 and the party associates and France's towns and former system 02:05.160 --> 02:08.220 to the present for homeland security and counterterrorism exacted 02:08.220 --> 02:10.910 a vice president worldwide government legal and business affairs 02:11.240 --> 02:14.890 and can Dreazen force holdings incorporated about winds rocked 02:14.890 --> 02:18.700 a was originally a slated to join us and was poached wanna. 02:18.700 --> 02:22.860 Another pan all had a vacancy so it's our last and a gain of 02:22.860 --> 02:26.460 the people who well saw that very good opening can a lively that was. 02:27.460 --> 02:30.060 So up fram but to open which you. 02:31.010 --> 02:36.750 When I think about policy issues that have a very a tidy connection 02:36.880 --> 02:39.610 foreign policy. She's a very tight connection common security 02:39.880 --> 02:43.460 right away think of syria of course with heard a lot so far the 02:43.460 --> 02:46.050 another camels about the dangers to come from foreign fighters 02:46.050 --> 02:49.830 in syria a including American fighters and obviously many detractors 02:49.830 --> 02:52.550 fighters as closely as possible and I so we're doing everything 02:52.550 --> 02:52.990 we can. 02:53.530 --> 02:56.300 But from a counter terror perspective in-home insecurity perspective. 02:56.950 --> 03:00.400 What should be us be doing differently in syria has a policy 03:00.400 --> 03:04.000 matter what should we accelerate forming in training of the rebels 03:04.180 --> 03:08.600 in order to empower them into fighting degrade these two new 03:08.600 --> 03:10.840 radical opposition groups these foreign fighters adjoining. 03:11.690 --> 03:14.820 So we'll let me start by saying team that I am. 03:15.620 --> 03:20.390 When says ned having a a cull hair and art to kill holes farm 03:20.390 --> 03:24.920 policy as relates to syria would be a good start. Ok a little sarcastic. 03:24.920 --> 03:28.010 I grant you might not long right. 03:28.610 --> 03:32.470 Wing this is not the problem of foreign fighters was not a problem 03:32.500 --> 03:36.430 that was on foreseeable it was a problem we doubt within a wrack 03:36.580 --> 03:39.820 during the bush administration. We don't was our allies around 03:39.820 --> 03:44.220 the world talk to foreign leaders about not letting. I'm men 03:44.250 --> 03:48.330 young and travels to be aware that they were traveling into the Warsaw. 03:48.950 --> 03:53.230 I'm so this is this was an eminently foreseeable right to the 03:53.230 --> 03:56.270 United States homeland and us interests around the world. 03:56.590 --> 04:00.880 Okay having said that we is what it is and we've got this problem 04:01.260 --> 04:05.000 um there's there's no question we can deal with the problem wire 04:05.000 --> 04:07.110 ourselves and that's why you've heard a lot. I thing during. 04:07.110 --> 04:10.920 The course of the conference finn from sitting senior government 04:10.920 --> 04:15.440 officials about working with for now. I is the intelligence requirements 04:15.440 --> 04:16.170 that go with that. 04:16.690 --> 04:22.190 Um. But there's a there's more we can do um. I I do think that 04:22.190 --> 04:25.570 we have that absolutely commit to farming and training the rack 04:25.800 --> 04:30.370 that rebel forces that will also like the extremists five away um. 04:30.570 --> 04:34.360 I think we have to get in there's been much talk about the resources 04:34.570 --> 04:38.810 and yet we hear from our regional allies um that that training 04:38.840 --> 04:42.450 the promise is of the training and equipping are made publicly 04:42.860 --> 04:46.650 that they are not adequately and appropriately financed there's 04:46.650 --> 04:50.750 been frustration intelligence community um that one day get the 04:50.750 --> 04:54.930 mission out that they're not able to get the fonz clear to congress 04:54.930 --> 04:59.280 to reprogram funds I'm into these of on shared sort of bureaucratic 04:59.310 --> 05:03.220 things that happen. The don't let us get to that mission best 05:03.250 --> 05:06.360 and effective without applied to this 500 million dollar plan 05:06.360 --> 05:09.110 the president proposed in his west point speeches that does that 05:09.110 --> 05:11.130 seem to like another can a flame out. 05:11.770 --> 05:15.230 Well I I will tell you now and it was with much fanfare right 05:15.230 --> 05:17.930 in there was a factions put out this is part of what that money. 05:17.930 --> 05:21.940 He's posted go towards um. But what again like to hear from our 05:22.000 --> 05:26.210 regional allies who are closer to this problem and have a much 05:26.210 --> 05:29.680 greater depth of understanding of it because they're there is 05:29.680 --> 05:33.860 that nothing ever seems to happen and what it does it's too small 05:34.120 --> 05:37.480 and it's not fast enough I and I think there something to that 05:37.510 --> 05:40.300 and as a result the threat against the whole and bring you back 05:40.300 --> 05:45.200 to this um is only continuing to rot is we've seen the increasing 05:45.200 --> 05:48.040 number of foreign fighters with western passports and then I'm 05:48.040 --> 05:49.630 and discussed and grow in this one. 05:50.450 --> 05:54.860 But Did you want a bunch of for that he did it is about a week 05:54.860 --> 05:58.320 we were a little bit the yes say about me I'm a and hats right 05:58.770 --> 06:02.180 and the degree to which T's saying da Chester worried about is 06:02.340 --> 06:03.760 this primarily a a. 06:04.490 --> 06:08.180 The problem overseas in on it within the us but having said that 06:08.180 --> 06:13.430 we saw in ukraine um. How devastating a a missile can be to a 06:13.430 --> 06:17.690 civilian air one of the rebels in syria are pleading for shoulder 06:17.690 --> 06:20.400 fired surface to air missiles and some members of congress like 06:20.400 --> 06:22.880 senator McCain we get the administration ought. 06:23.390 --> 06:27.040 Ought to provide them or allow their supplied by a our golf allies. 06:27.570 --> 06:32.360 But Eases ever or risk worth taking for the United States to 06:32.470 --> 06:35.370 allow those weapons to put proliferated even the catastrophic 06:35.370 --> 06:37.820 consequences of one following in the wrong hands and being use 06:37.820 --> 06:40.770 the way no was in a man pad in ukraine but. 06:41.450 --> 06:43.750 It was close enough to you a good one POS. 06:44.450 --> 06:48.220 So first from immediate thank clove gurvan and and home within 06:48.220 --> 06:52.110 the Aspen common security strategy institute to for fighting 06:52.110 --> 06:55.810 Davis a terrific discussion um and uh. 06:56.330 --> 07:02.210 The question you ask is a is really a dovetails with with friends response. 07:02.840 --> 07:04.210 You you know before. 07:04.830 --> 07:09.070 Syria became waited is today and several years ago it looked 07:09.360 --> 07:14.160 largely like uh uh. You know an Arab screen a tight it it. 07:14.800 --> 07:19.050 Activity where that he was a national issue of they were trying to. 07:19.570 --> 07:24.640 Change the regime with it internally um and you know if you look 07:24.640 --> 07:28.810 at all of the Awake innings that took place over the last several years. 07:29.360 --> 07:33.650 They did not have the foreign fighter uh uh continuation into 07:33.650 --> 07:35.930 the battle that isn't the problem today. 07:36.440 --> 07:41.170 I'm but because of that from unsecured perspective and we were 07:41.200 --> 07:44.600 largely part of the discussion that's up a national security 07:44.730 --> 07:50.090 classes national security discussion up that up became a obviously 07:50.090 --> 07:55.120 much more relevant to homeland security um and use all the battle 07:55.120 --> 07:57.910 switching from a national uh uh. 07:58.510 --> 08:02.230 Fight in skin syria and if it in the battle come. So when you 08:02.230 --> 08:06.150 had basically a turn into sunni shia conflict and the the expansion 08:06.150 --> 08:08.660 across the region that which meant a much more complicated. 08:09.230 --> 08:12.750 So as you wrestling through those policy options your policy 08:12.750 --> 08:17.420 options a lot less a specific to a national that contingency. 08:17.920 --> 08:21.620 Support of rebels or otherwise that that to a regional conflict 08:21.620 --> 08:22.660 that that we now see. 08:24.080 --> 08:27.980 The man had problem is what in what arms do. We do have to our 08:28.050 --> 08:32.200 our friends and what happens to that we saw about warehouses 08:32.200 --> 08:37.140 taken over by hard not so friends a and all of the weapons than 08:37.140 --> 08:38.430 go back into the theatre. 08:39.340 --> 08:43.500 It's not clear to me what weapons of choice is uh. I would recommend 08:43.500 --> 08:46.660 it's not my landing but I would make a recommendation. We did 08:46.660 --> 08:50.150 the secretary Johnson when he came and that syria is a homeland 08:50.150 --> 08:52.730 security problem. I know in the same most significant one nine 08:52.730 --> 08:54.570 out because as we've talked about earlier. 08:55.130 --> 09:00.940 Up it is a a safe haven in effect for training operations development 09:00.940 --> 09:04.330 tactics development net working all of the things for planning 09:04.330 --> 09:07.350 operations and we know that they're there's an interest in taking 09:07.350 --> 09:09.400 weapons developing them worth using them. 09:10.010 --> 09:14.250 As they go towards a United States. So hot hot I would say one 09:14.250 --> 09:17.390 I agree that we we need to focus on the terrorist threat there 09:17.710 --> 09:20.170 and then to as we look at the broader regional question's much 09:20.170 --> 09:23.360 more complicated question that I can I jumped in a diamond and 09:23.360 --> 09:24.270 why syria for. 09:24.830 --> 09:30.500 For a moment but I think the first of all the There's no question. 09:31.130 --> 09:34.560 That the quicken that syria. It is not only all mine security 09:34.560 --> 09:38.510 threat to roast. I think even more so for countries closer by. 09:39.060 --> 09:42.590 A europe that are not to mention iraq. Of course but I'm in europe faces. 09:42.590 --> 09:45.310 I think an enormous threat of these are allied interests of or 09:45.310 --> 09:46.130 so I think that's. 09:46.700 --> 09:47.250 One point. 09:47.780 --> 09:51.800 The other courses. I remember one I guess it was mrs clinton said. 09:52.310 --> 09:56.130 Uh of the sought Moscow and that was a one more time ago so. 09:56.780 --> 09:59.540 Are I would say that what we've done is we've been so within 09:59.540 --> 10:00.450 two hesitent. 10:01.150 --> 10:04.980 And to accra vacated in our attitude towards the syria. 10:05.630 --> 10:08.650 And while I I think I agree with a friend of we should arm. 10:09.380 --> 10:13.760 Up media moderate that forces in syria. I think we ought toward re. 10:14.240 --> 10:18.370 First of all on an for what farming for what objective I think 10:18.370 --> 10:20.230 that's got to be stated first. 10:20.840 --> 10:21.560 And I would say. 10:22.190 --> 10:26.540 It's to make a side go whipped a and a half and some alternative 10:27.020 --> 10:31.120 a prepared that to put it this place. So that that's what I wanted 10:31.120 --> 10:33.690 to be tackled mama mia and the man page. 10:34.430 --> 10:36.930 What's missing from the debate and I think it's a wry just a 10:36.930 --> 10:41.820 bit about what kind in any aircraft capability do provide your 10:41.970 --> 10:43.130 allies in the fight. 10:43.670 --> 10:47.760 Um we tended that that tends to be binary. Right wing raven exchange 10:47.760 --> 10:50.750 talking points down and we should demand those sorts of that 10:50.750 --> 10:53.970 capability we should not and what's missing is the new wants 10:53.970 --> 10:58.310 a and many people in this room know I I can describe in detail but. 10:58.880 --> 11:02.070 There is technical capability that you just giving it to them 11:02.070 --> 11:05.110 that doesn't mean it's gone forever and it'll work for the right. 11:05.140 --> 11:09.100 So it is this it is not a sort of the yesterday now the job in 11:09.360 --> 11:11.840 maybe you can talk about the published reports have suggested 11:11.840 --> 11:16.440 there are things like bio-metric um stands for fingerprints a 11:16.440 --> 11:19.220 weeded of GPS tracking you could disabled weapons from a distance 11:19.220 --> 11:20.950 is that the kind of thing you're talking about in other words 11:20.950 --> 11:23.710 that there could be a way to supply weapons and mitigate the 11:23.710 --> 11:27.310 rest through the use of biology there. Isn't means abusing technology 11:27.360 --> 11:28.700 Benedict in its fight. 11:29.480 --> 11:31.110 Well that john. 11:31.730 --> 11:35.950 You spent a couple of a cheerful years in iraq a and someone 11:35.950 --> 11:40.500 that darkest days there a after the us invasion and iraq is clearly 11:40.530 --> 11:44.990 a of the To kind of can join twin of this nightmare in syria 11:44.990 --> 11:45.470 right now. 11:46.040 --> 11:48.710 I'm A wonder if you could talk about. 11:49.380 --> 11:53.910 Us policy toward iraq and whether aid has left americans within 11:53.910 --> 11:58.110 the United States less safe in other words have we did the obama administration. 11:58.730 --> 11:59.820 Fail to. 12:00.960 --> 12:04.910 A stand up a strong enough for rocky government security force 12:05.190 --> 12:09.820 a in waited is now allowed de uh the ice is contagion to spread 12:09.820 --> 12:14.150 in in a way that has created in new and darker a threat to americans 12:14.150 --> 12:15.210 an awful first of all. 12:15.900 --> 12:19.510 The rack that the spread devices to iraq because now really compound 12:19.510 --> 12:22.430 of this problem in a very serious way because we're no longer 12:22.430 --> 12:25.530 talking about a syria problem or iraq problem. This has become 12:25.530 --> 12:28.010 a regional problem and that's what they're trying to get set 12:28.010 --> 12:32.310 up some kind of regional and duty has like elephant. That's the 12:32.310 --> 12:35.400 first thing I'd say I think approximate because of the current 12:35.400 --> 12:36.930 situation in iraq. 12:37.440 --> 12:40.970 Certainly that owes its origins to what happened in syria sought 12:40.970 --> 12:42.220 with that's been one of up. 12:42.740 --> 12:44.500 A side effects. 12:45.010 --> 12:48.930 That did we eat this for good when to go around is to have what 12:48.930 --> 12:51.780 kinda condition. We last that the racked. 12:52.460 --> 12:55.940 Yet that we did have a plan to train their armed forces and we've 12:56.000 --> 12:57.140 built to substantial. 12:57.650 --> 13:02.490 Uh armed force we for belts to achieve a residual forces we talked 13:02.490 --> 13:04.390 about earlier this morning with respect to. 13:04.900 --> 13:08.370 Afghanistan and that is not the failure of one administration 13:08.370 --> 13:09.320 other mister bullish. 13:10.580 --> 13:15.060 Agreed to it to herself up of that called for a date to scoop 13:15.060 --> 13:18.410 december 2011 deadline for the withdrawal of our forces because 13:18.410 --> 13:20.520 he felt that was the best he could get. 13:21.620 --> 13:24.590 From prime minister Malik. He was fearful that if he had no so 13:24.590 --> 13:29.500 flat all that a democratic administration. My command and not 13:29.500 --> 13:33.250 believe in 2000 eleven. But told applauding runaway in 2000 and nine. 13:33.250 --> 13:36.380 So I think he was tried it shoes between what he thought was 13:36.380 --> 13:39.850 a lesser of evils and settled for something short of his original 13:39.850 --> 13:44.160 goals but that this administration than trotted to reinstated 13:44.160 --> 13:48.590 the notion. Of a of an extension of our presence in iraq and 13:48.590 --> 13:53.760 regrettably sailed. I think uh it's very important that that 13:53.760 --> 13:56.550 we do it in Afghanistan jumping you believe the administration 13:56.550 --> 13:58.870 tried because there's a school of thought that they that was 13:58.870 --> 14:01.780 kind of a kabuki with paper tended to try they say they tried 14:01.780 --> 14:04.510 the didn't really wanted and that the fault lies with the president 14:04.510 --> 14:07.440 but do you think there was a good thing msgt. Well first of all 14:07.440 --> 14:10.180 I think that's a bit too conspiratorial for maybe I mean I think 14:10.180 --> 14:12.730 we made a good faith effort. We had a very good ambassador out 14:12.730 --> 14:14.060 there at the time we put a lot. 14:14.810 --> 14:17.870 A wade into it. But I think mr. Ma key for political reasons 14:17.870 --> 14:21.700 of his own then didn't wants to turn around them and agreed. 14:22.210 --> 14:25.470 To a continued American presses to think that was just up to 14:25.470 --> 14:28.450 watch political freight for him in iraq and it does he regret 14:28.450 --> 14:31.570 that decision. Now do some of his colleagues perhaps a do that. 14:32.640 --> 14:35.820 And I was rammed and briefly. What's what's the next step by 14:35.850 --> 14:38.570 you know there are some people who when are says first kind of 14:38.570 --> 14:41.900 marched into northern and western iraq in the top most older 14:41.900 --> 14:45.830 when people talking about quake drone strikes. We actor strikes 14:45.830 --> 14:48.820 we had to use military action uh. It seems to me that. 14:49.370 --> 14:52.920 Among many reasons why that's problematic is that we raise the 14:52.920 --> 14:56.980 backlash from lisa's that I says is consumed with bows and region 14:56.980 --> 15:02.050 now they're prime goal seems to be to fight the she adds a it 15:02.080 --> 15:05.460 the more america intervenes the moral eventually we've maker 15:05.460 --> 15:08.420 sells a target do you think that announces is right or what do 15:08.420 --> 15:09.230 you think we ought to do. 15:10.110 --> 15:13.610 Well when this began I felt its third that to the crisis was 15:13.610 --> 15:16.530 gonna be pushed back they were gonna go so far but most of are 15:16.790 --> 15:19.510 no further. I was being asked will will Baghdad's fall within 15:19.510 --> 15:20.570 the next week or two. 15:21.260 --> 15:23.410 And I think that's so it kind of a preposterous. 15:24.140 --> 15:26.000 A proposition so I think care. 15:26.580 --> 15:28.560 This situation can be redeemed. 15:29.220 --> 15:32.400 And I think that some other projections for a racked up in the 15:32.460 --> 15:35.380 maybe more than that you that they've been too alarmist. 15:36.020 --> 15:39.370 Um. And there are several different factors and work your first 15:39.370 --> 15:41.200 of all I'd. I think Iraqi army. 15:41.780 --> 15:44.750 But you don't you can't be written off entirely. I think can 15:44.750 --> 15:48.990 be a re constituted and and units can be a pull back together. 15:48.990 --> 15:53.140 Again secondly I think I sis where it has implanted itself was 15:53.140 --> 15:56.670 so alienated people but it's gonna feel some blowback can to 15:56.670 --> 15:58.940 push back from a backlash from the people. 15:59.480 --> 16:03.620 In the towns and places they occupy and lastly this issue of 16:03.620 --> 16:07.470 occurred some people say well the breakup of iraq the end of iraq. 16:08.000 --> 16:10.820 A and the kurdistan mike to independent. 16:11.450 --> 16:15.040 Uh I think the to up for the first what's not clear to me that 16:15.040 --> 16:18.740 the kurds have the wherewithal to sustain themselves as a viable 16:18.740 --> 16:22.330 state all by themselves because they depended a lot on some of 16:22.330 --> 16:23.990 these were revenues from Baghdad. 16:24.790 --> 16:27.410 Secondly at the would be very much an artist in eject. I've heard 16:27.410 --> 16:29.870 that they did 10 billion dollars of the kurds go independent 16:29.870 --> 16:32.640 there for going 10 billion annually. Well it could be the to 16:32.640 --> 16:36.720 say gets 17% of and they're entitled to 70% of the all revenues 16:36.720 --> 16:39.670 now the Baghdad government is cut them off of that now is a sort 16:39.670 --> 16:43.070 of a punitive. Action towards some both insist on wait wait like 16:43.070 --> 16:48.230 grab inter cook can't and so forth. Up but but the other as point 16:48.260 --> 16:52.500 I would make use it if if For some reason the kurds were to become 16:52.500 --> 16:54.590 an independent state Iraqi kurdistan. 16:55.730 --> 17:00.140 I think it would have a polarizing a fact on what remained of 17:00.140 --> 17:04.690 the Iraqi body politic. It would put be so in me and she is situation 17:04.690 --> 17:09.160 and of even stark or contrasts. If you well I think the kurds 17:09.160 --> 17:13.000 have been a factor of stability interact and they've played accident 17:13.000 --> 17:15.470 sort of a mediating role in the political process. 17:16.010 --> 17:18.450 And all play that's which are seeing going on in Baghdad right. 17:18.450 --> 17:20.180 Now is the national assembly in that. 17:20.770 --> 17:23.690 House speaker and now the new president iraq for try to settle 17:23.690 --> 17:26.210 on who's gonna be the next prime minister the country's but ball 17:26.210 --> 17:26.980 was not lost. 17:27.510 --> 17:28.550 But that's a wire it in you. 17:29.610 --> 17:33.610 Up david the there's Bening quite a lot of attention odd given 17:33.610 --> 17:35.940 to ice this in the media and I think possibly. 17:36.640 --> 17:41.110 It's it's Boswell he ices threat to the us house ben uh has been 17:41.110 --> 17:45.880 exaggerated again. I sings consume with local fights at the moment 17:46.140 --> 17:49.540 a at the expense of paying attention aq way pi which we've heard 17:49.540 --> 17:52.630 about a little bit here the really seems to be that the truly 17:52.630 --> 17:55.030 imminent danger. Do you agree with that. I'm I'd do you feel 17:55.030 --> 17:58.560 that that policymakers in the government spend more time thinking 17:58.560 --> 18:01.710 about an imminent threat from eight to 80 than for my sis. 18:02.740 --> 18:08.280 Holly brian that um. I think we um we're policymakers art today 18:08.310 --> 18:13.220 is that in regions which are up where there are no partner countries 18:13.680 --> 18:18.760 up where there is conflict going on where there isn't a 80 and 18:18.760 --> 18:22.090 ability to know well who's coming and going in what's coming 18:22.090 --> 18:26.440 and going. A you you have an effect a safe haven for developing 18:26.860 --> 18:30.190 a terrorist capabilities training operations and plans. 18:30.770 --> 18:31.810 Um so. 18:32.450 --> 18:36.690 That exists in the number of different for a across the the the 18:36.720 --> 18:41.030 down africa in the middle east and you see that in vocal wrong. 18:41.030 --> 18:44.960 You see that smile year Yemen um in humans. So you mention that 18:44.960 --> 18:48.250 but it's it's sensibly the greatest concern. Right now. 18:48.860 --> 18:52.920 Even a Syrian because the people are coming from other places. 18:52.920 --> 18:58.030 So you you have out kinda operatives from other. 18:58.710 --> 19:03.380 Regions networking in effect in and there are interested is a 19:03.380 --> 19:05.210 in some cases the United States. 19:06.410 --> 19:09.980 Just to animate what when you talk about ice is being original room. 19:10.570 --> 19:14.750 Um. Okay did they've already they disrupted there was a to the 19:14.750 --> 19:18.050 attack and enliven. I was disrupted I'm by the way. It's also 19:18.050 --> 19:21.100 what we heard a bed aq a P into that was the and whereby right 19:21.100 --> 19:24.660 and so you can because we live in a global world because people 19:24.660 --> 19:29.120 travel on their passports you can assume that to date what is 19:29.120 --> 19:32.440 a regional group will remain a regional grim and so there's lots 19:32.440 --> 19:35.330 of people on this one with john the still want others among them 19:35.650 --> 19:39.540 who cute don't have the luxury of that assumption and they use 19:39.540 --> 19:42.350 so on that they're gonna take what capability that they have 19:42.720 --> 19:46.010 that happen on and their ability to travel and then we'll visited 19:46.010 --> 19:50.680 upon us because of the ideology that drives. Well is that the 19:50.680 --> 19:53.280 then that leads to another question I wanted to ask which was 19:53.660 --> 19:54.410 the kind of. 19:55.330 --> 19:58.170 I think the one policy component to the presence west point. 19:58.170 --> 20:01.900 Speech was up with while we mention the syria training fun. 20:01.900 --> 20:05.470 But that was a subset of the this five billion dollar counter 20:05.470 --> 20:09.350 terror program. He wants to create a um they will in his words 20:09.350 --> 20:12.360 to train build capacity and facilitate partner countries on the 20:12.360 --> 20:15.480 front lines and you're that seem to cover some of the country's 20:15.480 --> 20:19.170 that both of you just mention and threats like local rum of maybe 20:19.170 --> 20:20.470 a qr Hamas about. 20:21.470 --> 20:24.100 Does that approach makes sense to me is that a potentially if 20:24.240 --> 20:28.740 he is that the right kind of policy thinking I'm to essentially. 20:29.240 --> 20:32.610 Focus more on building a partnerships a we've seen some of the 20:32.610 --> 20:36.280 drawbacks of a direct us action through drone strikes. I wanna 20:36.280 --> 20:40.530 come back to that uh but what do you think of that proposal and 20:40.530 --> 20:45.040 look I I think it's an essential component to any counterterrorism strategy. 20:45.040 --> 20:49.200 Right. It's just a need and it is cheaper to take the money and 20:49.200 --> 20:52.970 build intelligence and security forces in the country to protect 20:52.970 --> 20:56.660 themselves around their own borders around populations than it 20:56.660 --> 21:02.270 is to deploy a us capability us forces but it's it is an important 21:02.270 --> 21:05.700 and essential come one component that it must be multi-faceted. 21:05.700 --> 21:09.070 So for example I'm like I don't think there's any me in this 21:09.070 --> 21:13.150 room who wants 20 years from now I think 20 fifth best insecurity 21:13.150 --> 21:17.540 conference for our children to be out here talking and out fighting 21:17.540 --> 21:21.860 the did people who were radicalize in the refugee camps and so 21:21.890 --> 21:24.210 I'm an advocate for bars foreign aid. 21:24.740 --> 21:28.880 I'm an advocate for the United States itself not just leave it 21:28.880 --> 21:33.550 to the un must be in these refugee camps that this circumstances 21:33.550 --> 21:37.810 of this is the largest number of displaced persons as an actor 21:37.810 --> 21:41.780 in crisis that we see in our lifetimes they they are without 21:41.910 --> 21:46.080 sort of attitude medical fluid education all there. There's just 21:46.080 --> 21:50.510 no hope and and one of the bad guys do there in those camps and 21:50.510 --> 21:53.950 so are we are not there we have seen it but an essential battleground 21:53.950 --> 21:58.150 to them from which they will recruit train radicalize and get 21:58.150 --> 22:02.390 the next generation that will come back and fight it's just and 22:02.420 --> 22:05.010 all that set as much as I agree. 22:05.730 --> 22:09.330 That the counterterrorism part is an essential component. 22:10.160 --> 22:13.000 We cannot entirely escape. 22:14.180 --> 22:18.320 The obligation to be concerned about nation building and uh I 22:18.320 --> 22:21.390 don't mean nation building in the sense of us going in there 22:21.420 --> 22:22.590 and building the nation. 22:23.160 --> 22:26.170 Buddy help bring in whatever ways we can whether roots. 22:26.750 --> 22:30.620 Unilaterally bilateral your mulls a ladder when to help restore 22:30.650 --> 22:32.930 a semblance of political stability. 22:33.500 --> 22:36.860 To these countries because after all what is the root cause of 22:36.860 --> 22:37.560 this fat. 22:38.140 --> 22:43.000 It's for if you're looking at it from the top down it's the disintegration 22:43.250 --> 22:47.170 of world order and when it starts to disintegrating in these 22:47.170 --> 22:52.170 individual places and then they become a and governed spaces 22:52.480 --> 22:55.450 that and that's when the threat comes to our respective homeland. 22:55.450 --> 22:58.080 So we can't lose sight entirely. 22:58.790 --> 23:03.120 Faulty. Wrist restoration of stability aspect to all of us. 23:03.190 --> 23:05.890 Of course that's a very difficult political proposition. 23:05.890 --> 23:08.900 Right now and I I haven't checked that polling numbers on foreign 23:08.900 --> 23:12.050 aid resigns and and they're not headed in duran on it and you 23:12.050 --> 23:15.220 see that you can't do it overnight either. But you could there's 23:15.220 --> 23:18.410 an area where you really can't work with friends other interested parties. 23:19.050 --> 23:22.480 Europe included in this case that that because of the there is 23:22.480 --> 23:26.250 an interesting and the security element of this and and the capacity 23:26.250 --> 23:30.090 building both in terms of military and intelligence capita. 23:30.090 --> 23:33.910 But also law enforcement and frankly I would argue customs capability 23:33.910 --> 23:36.290 because that's where go governments get their revenues. So they 23:36.290 --> 23:37.740 can actually build capacity. 23:38.420 --> 23:41.920 If we win Arab in and with is one of the number one recommendations 23:41.920 --> 23:45.500 in our and our strategic when do we wouldn't have in addition 23:45.500 --> 23:49.170 to the military intelligence uh capacity building customs and 23:49.200 --> 23:53.740 and border capability you and have some upstream. A capacity 23:53.740 --> 23:57.490 to identified. What what's happening is it's not States collapsing 23:57.490 --> 24:01.120 necessarily from the inside its folks coming in also and in causing 24:01.120 --> 24:04.310 harm from the outside so there needs to be an ability to identify 24:04.310 --> 24:07.680 those who are coming in this is what happened in with a qr down 24:07.930 --> 24:11.600 what's happened to be a type of rule. We stay with you from it 24:11.670 --> 24:15.290 the david and looking at that the threat from within the United States. 24:15.910 --> 24:19.470 There's some very bad news a principally what we're seeing in 24:19.470 --> 24:22.570 syria right now and fighters going over there have western some 24:22.570 --> 24:23.710 cases American passports. 24:24.790 --> 24:27.480 Actually from the perspective of and of thinking about what. 24:27.980 --> 24:33.370 Produces a homegrown radicals and lone wolves you would think 24:33.370 --> 24:36.500 there's good news um. We cannot a rock for several years many 24:36.500 --> 24:39.910 were headed back in but we're now we're leaving Afghanistan that 24:39.910 --> 24:43.360 were dialing back on drone strikes a worriness Saudi aarabia. 24:43.910 --> 24:46.940 A does this he lighter us footprint. 24:47.690 --> 24:49.210 Uh make us safer. 24:49.850 --> 24:53.140 Uh it I mean it is that the even for critic of the president's 24:53.170 --> 24:57.020 foreign policy who says you need to be engaged overseas when 24:57.020 --> 25:00.300 you have to concede that your polling away some of the talking points. 25:00.300 --> 25:04.390 We heard a agile Carson picerne. I am and the times square bomb 25:04.390 --> 25:07.420 or in some other recent homegrown radical site. Drone strikes 25:07.630 --> 25:10.840 and killing of Muslims overseas as a reason for their bizarre 25:10.840 --> 25:14.150 to kill americans within us a soup do you think there's any way 25:14.150 --> 25:15.610 in which back picture might be improved. 25:16.390 --> 25:19.100 Visit I mean as a number of things that are contributing I think 25:19.130 --> 25:25.940 to a reducing their recruitment a a a potential of of drone strikes Lizards. 25:26.300 --> 25:30.350 What does it just them on the drone strikes alone on the mirror 25:30.350 --> 25:34.220 has been evolution of I think about our capability and of precision 25:34.270 --> 25:38.130 and our ability to a and our does this is one with which we use 25:38.130 --> 25:42.220 the decision making apparatus to go and use it up a that uh that 25:42.220 --> 25:46.080 tool um and frankly and a number of studies out there showing 25:46.080 --> 25:49.530 how uh the the reduction in casualties. 25:50.180 --> 25:54.560 See defended in terms of collateral damage in a very the for precise. 25:54.880 --> 25:57.830 That's obviously helpful by the way that was the exact phrase. 25:57.830 --> 26:00.680 Sure sir night score all on the side of the boat this that the 26:00.740 --> 26:03.940 the americans they were killing or collateral damage emily and 26:03.940 --> 26:07.470 it was a revenge can. Um but there are but there are other things 26:07.470 --> 26:10.970 that are a off also importantly you'd you you you list the a 26:11.140 --> 26:14.520 a number of them on I think one of the things that we know have 26:14.580 --> 26:17.740 um which we don't have a good handle on what we have a good sense 26:17.740 --> 26:20.690 that there's a tool opted in this is the most it's helpful is 26:20.690 --> 26:25.910 also of combat in the ideas face and the narrative and uh all 26:25.910 --> 26:29.120 give a shot up to the state department on this were in 2011 the 26:29.120 --> 26:34.230 student the A center for strategic counterterrorism communications. 26:34.750 --> 26:40.030 Which uh is specifically designed not is historically mistaken 26:40.030 --> 26:43.780 RIM's promoted the positive it's it's almost a defensive at breast. 26:43.950 --> 26:45.630 What is it to be us is doing that's good. 26:46.360 --> 26:48.780 This is actually going on countering the narrative out there 26:48.840 --> 26:52.430 and there's a number of folks in the center that work with intelligence 26:52.430 --> 26:56.450 community develop play ounce and are actually engaged with the 26:56.450 --> 27:00.280 digital a reached team and there's about 18000 different engagements 27:00.280 --> 27:07.440 out there uh in in or do in and a Aptera back a of Somali I'm 27:07.530 --> 27:12.810 a and Oh I'm pointing out the content of dissidents in the messages 27:12.810 --> 27:16.680 that we're hearing from a rather sirs. I think that that's also how. 27:17.540 --> 27:22.160 Hey. Changed top it's a little bit fran one asking about Afghanistan 27:22.190 --> 27:24.960 up with the was just a great can all in which we heard. 27:25.520 --> 27:29.880 A pretty optimistic Tate come up about the ability the Afghan 27:29.880 --> 27:32.670 security forces and Afghan come government. The hold together 27:33.120 --> 27:35.560 after the us sleeves. I'm not saying it was them. 27:36.170 --> 27:39.960 Polly on irish and that I think that can all I do justice to 27:39.960 --> 27:42.790 the fragility of the situation and the risks um. 27:43.460 --> 27:46.160 The concern would be that some of be positive reviews. 27:46.160 --> 27:49.220 We're hearing that the Afghan security forces. Now are echoes 27:49.220 --> 27:52.600 of the positive reviews. We heard of the Iraqi security forces 27:52.600 --> 27:56.720 maybe for five years ago um. So I saw question yushi is. 27:57.230 --> 27:59.950 Power worried are you about the state of Afghanistan has the 27:59.950 --> 28:02.960 us withdrawals do you think that the piece of withdrawal used 28:02.960 --> 28:07.010 to fast and can you envision a scenario where there is an apart 28:07.010 --> 28:08.680 a resurgence there and the next few years. 28:09.380 --> 28:13.410 So. First I did my first point here is I think you'd I think 28:13.410 --> 28:16.500 we've got all understand the front and people in this room do 28:16.500 --> 28:18.510 it's it's sort of in public generally. 28:19.100 --> 28:23.310 Um these are not that the buildup of love on the force whether 28:23.310 --> 28:26.320 it's a rocker Afghanistan is never a Delaney are. 28:26.860 --> 28:31.360 Perfectly has stepped up function. Right. There are setbacks 28:31.530 --> 28:34.090 and you have to read you have to be prepared for those you gotta 28:34.090 --> 28:36.740 regroup retrained and re deployed with them. 28:37.250 --> 28:40.510 For that reason because it's not a perfect when a first step 28:40.510 --> 28:44.380 function in building the force with the good news story is not 28:44.410 --> 28:49.590 I was in Afghanistan have with I sat little over here about um 28:49.840 --> 28:50.920 what they me down. 28:51.590 --> 28:55.020 I mean it really is an incredible story than because they did 28:55.020 --> 28:58.090 not only kid extraordinary numbers in terms of all the number 28:58.120 --> 29:01.800 of Afghan security forces that there are it like trying but understand 29:01.800 --> 29:05.630 nor did you do that you had a start with basic literacy and our 29:05.630 --> 29:08.480 soldiers and and the coalition forces to teach them how to read 29:08.510 --> 29:12.560 right in order to train them. So that was an extraordinary effort 29:12.610 --> 29:16.640 of which the call wishing. I sat us forces are right wing quite 29:16.640 --> 29:20.740 proud um. I do worry about the paces this go because there's 29:20.740 --> 29:23.430 gonna be the setbacks and we've gotta be prepared. We have to 29:23.430 --> 29:27.030 have a force they're um. I so I thought I have a forced an addict 29:27.030 --> 29:30.780 would force there in order to be they're and to help them re 29:30.780 --> 29:34.890 group retrained and re deployed secondly the other problem with 29:34.890 --> 29:38.520 two quick was rose is there continues to be basic capability here. 29:38.520 --> 29:44.160 Let capability um emergency crisis in crisis. I capability that 29:44.160 --> 29:47.940 their military does not yet hat I'm and nothing really sorely 29:47.940 --> 29:52.210 rely on how the coalition for an so there's a number of reasons 29:52.240 --> 29:57.650 you want to see how I'm anything residual presents. They're um 29:57.680 --> 30:00.980 and I worry I I I think that there's receptivity but we've got 30:00.980 --> 30:05.190 I work with the new government um and there's gotta be protection 30:05.190 --> 30:05.950 for the trips. 30:06.590 --> 30:07.970 I've i've justice supported. 30:09.060 --> 30:10.880 One of the president put an end date. 30:11.960 --> 30:15.860 Upon our presents my hope that we would've released. Yeah that that. 30:16.620 --> 30:21.430 Lesson from iraq abide not. Sure I entirely shear the gentle Allen's. 30:21.430 --> 30:25.180 So the optimism that if the situation where such that it required 30:25.180 --> 30:27.540 it continued presence that we could necessarily. 30:28.460 --> 30:29.740 Muster the political will. 30:30.620 --> 30:34.430 Uh to do that there's another to shoot it concerns bay a hall 30:34.770 --> 30:37.080 and max cost him by that I mean. 30:37.710 --> 30:41.670 We've been spending literally billions of dollars for the on a. 30:42.200 --> 30:45.170 Building up the have can security forces and and the price tag 30:45.170 --> 30:48.180 is gonna be something I think I heard it on the order five billion dollars 30:48.180 --> 30:48.650 a year. 30:49.300 --> 30:52.730 When I last look at the Afghan budgeted nimbly a few years ago. 30:53.270 --> 30:55.920 The hope it into our budget of the country was something on the 30:55.920 --> 30:58.870 were of one billion dollars a year. So I fear that once we've 30:58.870 --> 31:02.100 withdrawn yield that perhaps the syndrome that has happened. 31:02.870 --> 31:06.740 With other wars that than we'd we'd lose the congressional enthusiastic. 31:07.310 --> 31:10.510 Ford continued support of that suffered. So it the very least 31:11.000 --> 31:15.150 a it's gonna require wider but that effort with our condors that 31:15.150 --> 31:16.670 to muster the required. 31:17.300 --> 31:21.670 A a financial support for whatever ongoing assistance. We with 31:21.670 --> 31:24.910 proposed offered after stand after we've with strong last. 31:25.500 --> 31:29.160 Combat troops again. I'm reminded of the republican presidential 31:29.160 --> 31:32.540 primary debates in which a cutting off I believe that it might 31:32.540 --> 31:36.000 of been um rick Perry who wanted to cut off all foreign aid except israel. 31:36.500 --> 31:40.190 So. You you present the present an idea that faces a challenging 31:40.190 --> 31:42.120 environment as you. Well know I'm. 31:42.810 --> 31:45.960 David I wanted to view minute to talk about the uh a project 31:45.960 --> 31:49.590 that you spent a lot of time and sweat on a the recently released 31:49.590 --> 31:54.250 quadrennial homeland security with you and that says I wonder 31:54.250 --> 31:55.550 if you could tellers. 31:56.260 --> 31:59.400 You know what are we basically wanna know about it in the make 31:59.400 --> 32:02.560 my main questions are powered due to change from the 20 10 version 32:02.600 --> 32:05.260 what was different about this review what what with what findings 32:05.260 --> 32:05.710 were different. 32:06.470 --> 32:09.660 Um and what to call the most important war surprising finding. 32:11.090 --> 32:14.850 So this is the year congressional we require a hundred and winston 32:14.850 --> 32:18.560 view which uh the second one that came out to about a month ago 32:19.000 --> 32:22.570 um and is that the congressional reform and is to look it. 32:22.570 --> 32:25.910 What's the strategy for my insecurity over the next for five 32:25.910 --> 32:32.160 years that the first one in 2010 um was largely a a an are titillation 32:32.160 --> 32:35.740 of what our strategy were framework should be a it developed 32:35.740 --> 32:38.590 a vision statement of the safe secure and was leave home when 32:38.590 --> 32:41.850 we're American interests and aspirations can thrive and it said 32:41.850 --> 32:44.360 there were five missions that are required to be accomplished 32:44.360 --> 32:45.450 in order for us to. 32:45.980 --> 32:50.480 A achieve that vision the senate terrorism uh uh of securing 32:50.480 --> 32:55.020 our borders and in four C minister immigration system of sick 32:55.090 --> 32:59.450 safeguarding cyberspace which was a new mission up for the apartment 32:59.490 --> 33:03.880 and former insecurity and uh it's them building national resilience 33:04.340 --> 33:08.470 the 2014 in the last of we're so he does the strategic and barman 33:08.470 --> 33:13.420 is change the homeland security enterprises ventured and we have 33:13.460 --> 33:17.040 it in it in the office. I used to run that developed the risk 33:17.230 --> 33:19.860 analysis capability. So that we can actually do some. 33:20.420 --> 33:24.700 A serious risk analysis for the strategy and this was a hundred 33:24.700 --> 33:29.170 onto a reports and where the strategic shift that require and 33:29.170 --> 33:33.060 there's a a that are from the others five principal ones. 33:33.060 --> 33:36.660 But though the ones that I think that are worth noting um the 33:36.870 --> 33:40.450 the very first one is about terrorism um and it does talk about 33:40.480 --> 33:44.450 as we've all discussed you in our from last few days the distributed threat. 33:44.450 --> 33:49.690 That's now. I'm a them I'm all over the the Nobel from africa 33:49.820 --> 33:53.400 north africa south that to to the central africa in the middle 33:53.400 --> 33:59.430 east and the way you do to a a dress that um when the talks about 33:59.430 --> 34:04.740 six safe havens failed States and we also talk about um the lone 34:04.740 --> 34:06.570 offenders and a dressing. 34:07.130 --> 34:11.050 Boom of the learning that we had from the boston marathon a attack 34:11.350 --> 34:15.430 and what do we do in in in domestically a to insuring that we're 34:15.430 --> 34:18.710 better prepare where we were I think we'll prepare and what we 34:18.710 --> 34:20.240 do to to address that going down. 34:20.810 --> 34:24.350 A stream that to other things the convergence of the physical 34:24.350 --> 34:29.950 world with the virtual world and a critical importance of um 34:30.250 --> 34:33.990 and uh enhancing our or cyber security posture and building out 34:34.020 --> 34:39.480 our capability a and then uh we had up a recommendation on a 34:39.510 --> 34:42.700 on our by armed for the homeland security department in the enterprise 34:42.980 --> 34:46.790 on bio security and that changes that we're seeing in their urbanization 34:46.820 --> 34:50.610 a around the world and agricultural ships um the diminish the 34:50.610 --> 34:55.890 effectiveness of a and I viral some antibiotics um that and uh 34:55.890 --> 34:59.630 you seen the emergence of a pathogens uh that it would no longer 34:59.630 --> 35:02.830 able to treat the possibility of pandemics and so the Buyout 35:02.830 --> 35:06.030 threat is something that was a paper can I get your quick reaction 35:06.030 --> 35:11.420 to this the story about the um smallpox files that were discovered 35:11.420 --> 35:15.250 in some back closet. I founded to be a horrifying story that 35:15.250 --> 35:18.130 was somewhat swept away by al the chaos in the world that time. 35:18.810 --> 35:21.400 What was your take on there have been a couple of other lesser 35:21.400 --> 35:24.800 examples of similar things recently was that on your radar and 35:24.800 --> 35:29.260 all that sort of but sloppy a shortage within the United States. 35:29.800 --> 35:33.250 And that was nowhere for strategic shift on a sloppy and of your. 35:34.060 --> 35:37.580 Buyout. All pocket lying around a was it was our radar on the 35:37.580 --> 35:41.360 is in everyone's radar which is why would surprise. Yeah. 35:41.530 --> 35:46.960 Yeah. Yup and david touched on it. I'm one of the places where 35:46.960 --> 35:50.840 there's been tremendous progress and by the way at a critical 35:50.840 --> 35:54.930 point nine straight is on dandy andy. I mean this is this was 35:54.960 --> 35:57.720 in we didn't work on it the bush administration but. 35:58.370 --> 36:01.380 Tremendous progress has been made during the current administration. 36:01.810 --> 36:05.130 You know with all the chaos in the middle east you have nuclear 36:05.130 --> 36:10.060 powers that are right and so you really care about that the federal 36:10.060 --> 36:16.140 government had is an architecture um that can address this concern. 36:16.460 --> 36:20.990 It's not just you and a panel on and um my I had to get into 36:20.990 --> 36:24.330 those you're gonna hear from later and it's been an extraordinary 36:24.330 --> 36:28.120 undertaking these are the unsung heroes and by the way the or 36:28.120 --> 36:32.060 success many gets the breast and you're like me that that in 36:32.060 --> 36:35.050 making it less likely that with all the chaos in a region that 36:35.050 --> 36:39.450 has nuclear materials you worn out today less likely to run the 36:39.450 --> 36:42.270 rest of the nuclear PS right here inside the night. It's ended 36:42.270 --> 36:46.140 up at a very hard time for the obama administration words does 36:46.140 --> 36:49.380 not have a lot of foreign policy successes to brag about uh. 36:49.410 --> 36:53.040 One would have to concede even if you thought there was strategic 36:53.080 --> 36:56.540 value to striking tea airstrikes in syria. I think most people 36:56.540 --> 36:59.660 would have to succeed getting those chemical weapons out was 36:59.660 --> 37:02.640 pretty successful pretty surprising a lot people but it couldn't 37:02.640 --> 37:05.660 be done. I know they're still questions to date to claire everything 37:05.660 --> 37:09.050 are there a still some questions about some facilities but that 37:09.320 --> 37:12.250 I think you did you the administration's from credit for up one 37:12.280 --> 37:15.820 last kinda big-picture question before we start taking questions. 37:15.820 --> 37:19.410 There was a sentiment among my panelist that uh we will might 37:19.440 --> 37:21.610 wanna give the audience a little more time for questions and 37:21.610 --> 37:24.070 I thought there was a good idea. So you there's an app heligan 37:24.070 --> 37:24.730 a couple more. 37:25.310 --> 37:29.220 Um but I just wanted to bounce off you guys to see a Wall Street 37:29.220 --> 37:33.040 Journal story from maybe 10 days ago a a bit coin the phrase 37:33.080 --> 37:35.960 arc of instability in it said that I think he was something like 37:36.120 --> 37:40.300 you know from timbuktu to karachi uh. There's instability across 37:40.300 --> 37:42.910 the globe uh that we haven't seen. 37:43.430 --> 37:47.670 I think the Journal said since V or early 19 seventies um other 37:47.670 --> 37:50.050 people have said it's an even longer time if I'm not mistaken 37:50.050 --> 37:53.550 senator McCain has said it's the most turbulent unstable up during 37:53.550 --> 37:56.510 his entire life time which would cover a believe would cover 37:56.510 --> 38:01.570 world war two uh. But I guess my question is are we is there 38:01.570 --> 38:05.990 something different about this moment different in heinz uh uh 38:05.990 --> 38:09.280 that makes it particularly dangerous. Why you know white house 38:09.280 --> 38:13.440 officials what will argue that there have been a lot of moments 38:13.440 --> 38:17.200 where they were bouncing and juggling uh uh simultaneously starting 38:17.200 --> 38:20.510 leave them months after nine 11 were pretty a. 38:21.120 --> 38:22.860 Pretty dangerous in turbulent bed. 38:23.360 --> 38:25.730 Had you guys feel about the joel all-star. We came in you can 38:25.730 --> 38:29.200 that's why are certain first a couple plays and one we talk about 38:29.200 --> 38:33.060 that maduro to also tech try to take a look at the places in 38:33.060 --> 38:33.810 the world later. 38:34.700 --> 38:38.290 Reasonably stable because uh a few good that I think to come 38:38.290 --> 38:39.750 up with a pot sure. 38:40.270 --> 38:43.270 A much larger share of the world's population with you look at 38:43.400 --> 38:48.980 the Of the western hemisphere for example or or the asia pacific region. 38:49.620 --> 38:53.370 Or even setting aside Afghanistan pakistan way in the region 38:53.370 --> 38:54.140 of south asia. 38:55.110 --> 38:58.120 And africa and this sort of certain about instability in africa 38:58.120 --> 39:01.470 but it's about the same it's percolated a lot about the same 39:01.910 --> 39:03.590 as it has been for the last time. 39:04.130 --> 39:06.210 A 15 year. So I take these things. 39:06.910 --> 39:11.910 Up it's can be a exaggerated that if good if there's one other 39:11.910 --> 39:13.890 commit to make about all this I think. 39:15.110 --> 39:19.490 There are some doubts about what the new world order is going 39:19.490 --> 39:22.520 to be a we had this bipolar world them that we have the sole 39:22.520 --> 39:26.050 remaining superpower and now we're sort of I think the indispensable 39:26.050 --> 39:27.370 power without any doubt. 39:28.230 --> 39:31.800 Mutually indispensable with uh the powers that I think there's 39:31.890 --> 39:36.730 that we're still trying to figure out how the world the the Order 39:36.730 --> 39:40.670 ought to be shaped in the decades ahead and I think that's injected 39:40.670 --> 39:41.230 an element. 39:41.760 --> 39:45.350 Of uncertainty in this whole situation may have compounded it's 39:45.350 --> 39:48.080 a big question and a quick thoughts. We you guys before we go 39:48.080 --> 39:50.450 to the audience. I don't wanna burn the time. I just bragg we're 39:50.450 --> 39:51.410 allocating for them but. 39:51.920 --> 39:56.040 Quick quick and I would like to see the phone john started. 39:57.050 --> 40:00.760 And we can do in if you do if you if you go over historical arc. 40:01.130 --> 40:05.500 I'm in and we look of global affairs. There are less force less 40:05.500 --> 40:11.330 violence more economic prosperity more integration um and uh 40:11.460 --> 40:16.720 and at and and a moral a more more freedoms I'm around the world 40:16.720 --> 40:20.920 than the rather mainly time. So you have to start from that that's said. 40:21.510 --> 40:26.980 The International order the which he you know of from those who 40:26.980 --> 40:32.180 are of the arrests you know based upon an unitary state actors up. 40:32.880 --> 40:37.520 That's been changing for 20 years and up and what you're seeing 40:37.520 --> 40:38.490 now is. 40:39.170 --> 40:42.720 In you you know I'm with the so-called archivist of instability 40:43.010 --> 40:47.050 and you're you're seeing. The the challenges for tween state 40:47.050 --> 40:51.160 actors in non-state actors and we're power resides how power 40:51.160 --> 40:54.080 can be distributed imploring them. I call it sort of an agent 40:54.110 --> 40:57.320 hide that this is the because you've got of things that used 40:57.320 --> 41:01.110 to be domestic concerns are now national concerns and vice for 41:01.110 --> 41:05.770 so things that were national powers can now be local powers um 41:05.800 --> 41:09.590 and so as a a that at at the same time. We're seeing all of that 41:09.620 --> 41:13.010 in in particularly in the middle east um you are also seeing 41:13.010 --> 41:15.130 the Um. 41:15.960 --> 41:20.070 The rock them of the reemergence of a cold of the cold war when 41:20.070 --> 41:23.740 behind syria and the challenges we face there you had a a russian 41:23.740 --> 41:27.270 block on policies that the administration trying to move forward 41:27.700 --> 41:31.770 a you see what's going on in ukraine right now I'm and so um 41:31.990 --> 41:36.080 we get we're working in an age of uncertainty by the way a fight 41:36.080 --> 41:39.740 that truncated the arc as a one to karachi in the Journal's I 41:39.740 --> 41:42.880 think quite actor telling stands up to eastern ukraine. Of course 41:42.880 --> 41:46.490 so typical and let me be I I suppose it makes me a little bit 41:46.490 --> 41:49.440 of this counted the garden party here and miss one bed that I 41:49.440 --> 41:52.460 I would say to you I think what they're what they're trying to say. 41:53.200 --> 41:57.020 They they enemies our enemies around the world our adversaries 41:57.050 --> 42:01.960 are more capable. So the technology has provided you know non-state 42:01.960 --> 42:06.670 actors with an exit we haven't known before there is more instability 42:06.670 --> 42:09.600 into those sort of Rubin and the counter terrorism committee 42:10.040 --> 42:14.770 instability benefits your adversary not do not the state actor 42:14.770 --> 42:18.650 trying to fight it and so they they combination of technological 42:18.650 --> 42:23.670 capability with instability. I'm at and this is the task of fox 42:23.670 --> 42:25.200 dies dispersed right. 42:25.730 --> 42:28.410 Makes it a dangerous world and and so when they're talking at 42:28.410 --> 42:31.960 the arc of instability. That's what I I took it to mean I think 42:31.960 --> 42:34.510 that's I think that's right. I think it's a real challenge for 42:34.540 --> 42:35.580 any administration. 42:36.350 --> 42:39.980 Okay great so questions please and your ham one right out so. 42:40.670 --> 42:41.240 Start. There. 42:47.150 --> 42:50.750 You might improve the transparency international always like 42:50.750 --> 42:52.690 the panels were dressing you she. 42:53.280 --> 42:55.020 That has intimate threats to pay. 42:55.580 --> 42:59.440 And that he's capacity building outside of building get alliterative 42:59.440 --> 43:02.550 security forces economic development for appeal. 43:03.620 --> 43:07.570 So we are terrorists move british in part have been successful 43:07.880 --> 43:10.530 in garnering support from the population. 43:11.150 --> 43:13.710 It's a more truck because of weaknesses on the pocket. 43:14.420 --> 43:18.400 City government's human rights abuses corruption appears. 43:19.010 --> 43:21.830 Had only in the United States and we have always been appetit. 43:22.520 --> 43:26.700 For taking the height ethical or moral ground. But it comes to 43:26.700 --> 43:31.420 these abuses how do we balance. So I need for national security. 43:32.330 --> 43:38.780 With power insistence on promoting human rights can kinda corruption. Popchips. 43:40.640 --> 43:42.060 Well actually did I think they've. 43:42.700 --> 43:45.850 These objectives dovetail innocence and you make the point about. 43:46.660 --> 43:47.890 Had governments. 43:48.440 --> 43:51.060 Uh and the importance of good governance. I think a lot of these 43:51.060 --> 43:53.020 issues that have arisen around the world have. 43:53.570 --> 43:55.280 In the first instance to do. 43:56.090 --> 43:59.700 The with the lack of a strong civil society the law. Good governance 43:59.700 --> 44:03.530 into the extent the chin can help promote that foreign car rigid. 44:04.190 --> 44:09.410 I think you are also good goinna helped improve for a security 44:09.410 --> 44:12.160 the difficulty is that we now have. 44:12.840 --> 44:15.530 The number of years a very good experience showing that that 44:15.530 --> 44:19.080 we had to go to mention build we haven't figured out exactly. 44:19.600 --> 44:21.220 How to do it. We know what's important. 44:21.850 --> 44:25.000 But we don't quite and it's it's old much easier to say than 44:25.000 --> 44:28.690 it is to do but I think we all want what we want to achieve I 44:28.690 --> 44:29.810 think what you're talking about. 44:30.560 --> 44:33.160 It's also worth noting that we uh have been. 44:34.130 --> 44:37.110 Are returning to a status quo with Cairo a. 44:37.740 --> 44:40.280 Jiggle and is brutally repressing its plot apply opposition. 44:40.280 --> 44:41.250 I wonder if you think that. 44:42.010 --> 44:46.100 On balance that that makes sense because it's so important and 44:46.100 --> 44:47.530 ally in Cairo whether there's like. 44:48.210 --> 44:51.400 Is there a longer term backlash. We also the pretty tolerant 44:51.400 --> 44:54.350 of the the crackdown bach parade really me and he had spring 44:54.560 --> 44:57.830 we pay for that of a longer term why I into yeah I think pardon 44:57.830 --> 45:01.670 lesson from the ancient is Riyadh and we gotta be approach picking 45:01.670 --> 45:04.840 winners and losers with a little bit indian Melody. Right were 45:04.840 --> 45:05.510 mad for good. 45:06.200 --> 45:09.980 Um and by the way just appealing sample who expected me bush 45:09.980 --> 45:13.270 administration for the last one collections either. So I could 45:13.270 --> 45:17.050 when he's not noted that in addition to nation de la NBA picking 45:17.140 --> 45:21.080 winners and losers and so and you know what we ought not try 45:21.080 --> 45:25.160 to get better at that we ought and I understand that in people's 45:25.160 --> 45:28.280 civil societies will pick winners and losers sometimes people. 45:28.320 --> 45:32.420 We don't we wouldn't pick ourselves. But what you want to support 45:32.420 --> 45:35.260 is the more institutional thing michael russians talking about 45:35.260 --> 45:38.420 and then is supposed to picking winners and losers when you want 45:38.420 --> 45:42.480 to encourage are civil society all lack of a and increase transparency. 45:42.780 --> 45:44.520 You know fighting corruption. 45:45.360 --> 45:50.190 And open and democratic freedoms as opposed to in individual 45:50.340 --> 45:52.680 a or a particular sports so to speak up. 45:53.520 --> 45:56.460 Uh. Packed their sir. Yes you. 46:02.750 --> 46:05.280 Work. A cure technologies. 46:06.290 --> 46:09.280 And that is familiar with is part of the world like did live 46:09.280 --> 46:10.580 in asia of researchers. 46:11.140 --> 46:14.570 But you know one thing I think we miss on this do we really think 46:14.620 --> 46:16.590 that we can put in a society. 46:17.270 --> 46:21.400 But who were we don't spend time educating the one. 46:22.490 --> 46:25.980 The coastal and you nauseous like you know and say it's the women 46:26.240 --> 46:26.960 run the world. 46:27.560 --> 46:30.590 So when it and they influenced and we're at that so when you 46:30.590 --> 46:34.440 really set new look added. We talk about all these other fines. 46:35.300 --> 46:38.720 But if you look at for the major prongs in the world today. 46:39.050 --> 46:43.100 It's a place were the least educated women are in the world. 46:43.780 --> 46:47.580 So can we fix the problem are and my way off there's. 46:48.100 --> 46:50.850 A commitment to did this is not my earned and one would take 46:50.850 --> 46:55.470 a crack at this. I I I will tell you I'm than in Afghanistan. 46:55.470 --> 47:00.000 I mean and there is an economic data details to if you will hire 47:00.000 --> 47:04.070 one and you hire me and and that each a dollar on woman will 47:04.070 --> 47:08.260 take that dollar back and invested in her family and and And 47:08.260 --> 47:11.480 it's not the same percentage of that same taller than the and 47:11.480 --> 47:14.600 we'll do that that's not an Apple I'm just talk indian before 47:14.630 --> 47:18.440 everything jumps up and do a doles mate just the data is just 47:18.440 --> 47:21.740 what we learned so but there's a when there's a larger question. 47:21.740 --> 47:25.450 It's not just about one it's about literacy we found that I did 47:25.450 --> 47:28.670 I talked about the problem with literacy in Afghanistan and training 47:28.790 --> 47:32.810 the that military forces there. It's a literacy problem. I do 47:32.840 --> 47:35.510 I do believe that there's a particular problem that making sure 47:35.540 --> 47:39.730 women are people participants in society. I think it it first 47:39.730 --> 47:41.260 and foremost starts with education. 47:42.120 --> 47:44.920 The by the way of course that's what makes beauvoir um. So despicable 47:45.040 --> 47:47.940 that kidnapping girls who just trying to go to school um. 47:48.530 --> 47:49.700 Embryos for jumping on that. 47:50.360 --> 47:53.580 A poke over rahman all the other so collided and I sold because 47:53.580 --> 47:56.700 I think they all have the same ideas western education SUV. 47:56.700 --> 47:58.740 That's the hard to make you can't the. Women. 48:01.660 --> 48:02.570 In start. Stuff. 48:08.590 --> 48:12.160 You that is not something that we've been discussing the it to 48:12.160 --> 48:18.200 them on tables switches the balance between military and humanitarian 48:18.200 --> 48:21.800 relief efforts in the us and I'm curious the because whether 48:21.800 --> 48:25.390 it's what archie have store. I'm a lot of other questions that 48:25.390 --> 48:26.150 have come up. 48:26.810 --> 48:32.690 How how well are we doing in balancing the resources of the humanitarian 48:32.690 --> 48:35.750 focus san empowering women a lawyer. 48:36.380 --> 48:39.800 You're making sure that kids are recruited of refugee camps of 48:39.800 --> 48:43.720 those humanitarian functions how well are we doing in integrating out. 48:45.310 --> 48:49.600 Wow say that I can get my kids because of the meetings of I participated in. 48:50.140 --> 48:53.120 The way this this this works is when you're looking at a strategy 48:53.120 --> 48:56.190 of is so Nigeria's a good example of this were any eight Indians 48:56.220 --> 49:00.360 that so. Yeah African countries that we've worked out of it is 49:00.360 --> 49:02.820 a whole of government approach. So we're asking the question 49:02.820 --> 49:06.680 about the national security interests. So how are you to do with 49:06.680 --> 49:10.190 the terrorist threat of nigeria but they'll lose a whole govern 49:10.190 --> 49:14.800 approach to that which includes a investments the and development 49:14.830 --> 49:18.540 which includes a building of civil society which accused human 49:18.540 --> 49:23.390 security and dimensions as well asked training a and partnerships 49:23.430 --> 49:26.980 to pass the vote for counterterrorism than so it just or process 49:26.980 --> 49:31.470 perspective the strategic a interest as I'm looking at all the 49:31.470 --> 49:35.420 different tools we have to contribute to a building a better 49:35.420 --> 49:37.850 society in the in our partner nations. 49:38.390 --> 49:40.750 The man fan as I met up we all. 49:41.490 --> 49:44.980 Dollar for dollar. No comparison. We don't spend a kind of money. 49:45.190 --> 49:48.810 We know very well for example what we provided aid to pakistan 49:49.170 --> 49:52.870 hot enough to the earthquake right and then independent of the U.S. 49:52.870 --> 49:57.470 government organizations going into polling right local populations 49:57.500 --> 50:00.770 thought better of the United States get the we provided aid in 50:00.770 --> 50:02.780 the wake of that that the first quick. 50:03.430 --> 50:07.630 We need to do a better job my argument and on it pulls a little 50:07.630 --> 50:11.140 bit on deaf ears when you're inside the bureaucracy is humanitarian 50:11.140 --> 50:13.760 assistance like what you're talking about being in the refugee 50:13.760 --> 50:17.640 camps is an essential tool to national security not just of all 50:17.640 --> 50:20.670 of them. It's an national security tool and it's gonna be looked 50:20.670 --> 50:23.520 at it that way. It's gotta be funded that weight and we've gotta 50:23.520 --> 50:24.320 commit to with that. 50:24.900 --> 50:26.830 And i've i've had one of those that. 50:29.160 --> 50:32.040 There are I mean depending on the situation. 50:32.770 --> 50:37.220 You're gonna have to decide sometimes which of the two has priority 50:37.250 --> 50:40.270 if you're in a totally chaotic situation with. 50:40.800 --> 50:44.570 Forces over running the government and so on and so forth your 50:44.890 --> 50:49.010 programs will not be effective unless you establish a modicum 50:49.040 --> 50:52.450 of security. I ran into that problem in iraq when I got there 50:52.450 --> 50:55.650 because the minute we were it we had been in denial about. 50:55.650 --> 50:58.120 The fact that that was an insurgency in the country. So what 50:58.120 --> 51:02.440 was happening is with beet starting with the launching infrastructure projects. 51:03.070 --> 51:07.090 Or other projects that at great cost to the us taxpayers and 51:07.090 --> 51:11.450 the insurgents with going blowup use the what what whatever they 51:11.450 --> 51:15.420 were pipelines or electric towers uh huh overnight. So of the 51:15.420 --> 51:19.410 did securities is essential component of all this you do have 51:19.410 --> 51:22.470 to find the right balance but you do have to step was set minimum 51:22.470 --> 51:25.790 security necessary to be able to carry out these of a perfect 51:25.790 --> 51:28.890 was just a with this for one more beat david you're most recently 51:28.920 --> 51:30.880 in government and I'm not sure how much you would've. 51:31.490 --> 51:34.330 Interface with congress on this question. What do you feel that 51:34.410 --> 51:38.740 the people who matter in congress should get this understand 51:38.740 --> 51:41.900 us are willing to pony up the money ford again this keeps coming up. 51:41.900 --> 51:44.720 This question of what would make sense and I just keep thinking 51:44.720 --> 51:46.600 about the political environment. We're in right now. 51:47.180 --> 51:50.630 So now this is wary of field of any committee that you're in 51:50.630 --> 51:53.840 event 92 committees is uh. I would have a testified for about. 51:55.110 --> 52:01.220 So I'm it in it turns out that I'm a There are much focuses on 52:01.220 --> 52:04.030 four of errors and in and that's one of those committees. 52:04.100 --> 52:08.260 So we did not have these discussions except in the refugee perspective. 52:08.810 --> 52:12.710 Promise to carry honestly unjust an integration of refugees a 52:12.710 --> 52:16.270 a siamese um and so we did have some oversight of the nurses 52:16.360 --> 52:19.430 is principally about the security of the individuals coming to 52:19.430 --> 52:22.190 with United States and always ensuring that we're not of interest 52:22.190 --> 52:23.220 we shouldn't be. 52:23.990 --> 52:27.550 Uh we shouldn't be modest about the role we play. 52:28.270 --> 52:31.840 In dispensing and deliberate mine to hardly anybody else has 52:31.840 --> 52:35.660 a capacity humanitarian assistance around the world whether it's 52:35.660 --> 52:40.980 food aid in Sudan or whether it's HIV the pout far program in 52:40.980 --> 52:44.650 africa which is after all something on the orders 15 billion dollars here. 52:45.250 --> 52:48.740 I'm a in the amount of money we devote to humanitarian assistance 52:48.740 --> 52:49.280 is not true. 52:49.820 --> 52:52.440 And in syria actually the number has risen quite odone. 52:52.470 --> 52:55.610 I've lost track of what it is but he doesn't go up attention 52:55.880 --> 52:57.950 you'd ministers has gradually been increasing number and it's 52:57.950 --> 52:59.280 pretty substantial at this point. 52:59.810 --> 53:01.750 Okay back there. Yet. 53:06.870 --> 53:10.640 David olive catalyst partners alike changes. So you just to second. 53:11.420 --> 53:14.330 It is there a difference from a homeland security standpoint 53:14.330 --> 53:19.700 and national security standpoint between cyber warfare and cyber 53:19.700 --> 53:23.340 terrorism any of here is a difference how should we look at. That. 53:28.210 --> 53:32.030 And it's an interesting question. I mean I and back I'm tended 53:32.030 --> 53:34.450 to say that's a little bit of semantics but I'm not to. 53:35.050 --> 53:39.040 Your city or the state versus non-state actors yet Wal. 53:39.880 --> 53:43.140 Not necessarily that's ride because you gets taste state sponsors 53:43.140 --> 53:47.300 of terrorism Wyman norm as cyber capability um. I think there 53:47.360 --> 53:50.790 might be a distinction that who the victim is rad is it against 53:50.790 --> 53:53.820 a civilian target purses and military targets you know. 53:55.190 --> 53:58.130 I think the most important piece to that question that you're 53:58.130 --> 54:00.200 a asking and mine mine is. 54:00.730 --> 54:02.790 The United States must it least. 54:03.300 --> 54:07.990 Within its self understand what it will use cyber offensively 54:08.020 --> 54:08.780 as a weapon. 54:09.350 --> 54:14.440 Right and and I will tell you that is a continuing endless ongoing 54:14.440 --> 54:19.800 debate um. But one we is it as a nation need to understand the 54:19.800 --> 54:24.160 ramifications of that every time you deploy your cyber capability 54:24.340 --> 54:28.340 the first policy question is am I prepared to respond to a one 54:28.340 --> 54:32.660 and turn it back on me I'm and this is the use of one you will 54:32.660 --> 54:37.830 use your capability ostensibly really is at the crux of it is 54:37.830 --> 54:40.910 it the heart of the question we're asking in my mind I'm and 54:40.910 --> 54:44.130 I think that that's and conversation it's a legal conversations 54:44.130 --> 54:48.210 a policy conversation and by the way in fairness to the executive branch. 54:48.910 --> 54:52.890 Congresses had cyber bills far more benign than anything. 54:52.890 --> 54:56.870 I've just suggested may can't seem to agree on mad. So I know 54:56.900 --> 54:59.690 this is off it's a hard question but when you to rest what what 54:59.690 --> 55:02.490 term would you applied stocks was that an act of war. 55:03.880 --> 55:07.210 The man. Okay we're that's not signed in a productive avenue 55:07.210 --> 55:09.060 we can talk about later break. There. 55:14.080 --> 55:15.480 Needed above all or it's. 55:16.010 --> 55:19.530 Okay right that's what I was just that I was anticipating and 55:19.910 --> 55:24.570 hi I'm a motion Nelson with are important global security justice zoltan. 55:25.360 --> 55:28.940 Can you chocolate of it about which was Co back to syria and 55:28.940 --> 55:32.800 Russia's role in in syria but say theoretical Gandhi moderate 55:32.800 --> 55:36.710 population that uh I can come in and replace to submission. 55:37.460 --> 55:41.440 Could that take place without russian influence um. We saw our 55:41.440 --> 55:44.250 russian influenced when we wanted to get rid of up weapons of 55:44.250 --> 55:47.580 mass destructor chemical weapons. It was a factor of the the 55:47.580 --> 55:52.160 same time russia jus you re arm syria with more dancer weapons technology. 55:52.620 --> 55:56.540 Okay so so what we do how to we integrate russia into this process 55:56.540 --> 55:59.650 and with say theoretical to crimea was um happening right now. 56:00.920 --> 56:01.220 You know. 56:01.850 --> 56:03.880 Are we pretend in the crime isn't happening. Right now. 56:04.600 --> 56:06.870 Sort of our policy and um. 56:07.850 --> 56:11.020 That's not fair that's not fair but crimea is now kind of ed 56:11.490 --> 56:12.780 ed de. Facto. 56:14.580 --> 56:18.110 Um acquisition and it's no longer we know we don't talk about 56:18.110 --> 56:20.980 crimea except on the margins of or pasta making but backed the 56:20.980 --> 56:22.220 question I'm. 56:23.170 --> 56:27.770 You know I actually think russia is far more pragmatic than the 56:27.770 --> 56:30.890 way you phrase the question suggest they their strategic interest 56:30.890 --> 56:33.560 they do I'm strategic interest in syria. I think that's right. 56:33.950 --> 56:37.890 I don't think in the and as long as siri is a client state and 56:37.890 --> 56:41.760 I'm pretty major purchase or a russian military equipment. 56:41.850 --> 56:45.020 They care who they are selling to in syria at the is so it's 56:45.050 --> 56:48.220 it's mercurial in the sense of I think codeine and the russians 56:48.220 --> 56:51.300 will support anybody who's gonna continue to buy weapons and 56:51.680 --> 56:55.690 allow them continued access to try to stay on a deep water port men. 56:55.820 --> 56:58.690 So why I think Russia's approach to this is a far more pragmatic 56:58.690 --> 57:02.240 one um and I think they would quickly switch a wine says they 57:02.240 --> 57:05.860 thought they had continued and a Klein fear but to the flip part 57:05.860 --> 57:10.080 of that is shirley it with a the syria policy would be using here. 57:10.910 --> 57:14.500 If we have the russia could reach a real meeting of minds on 57:14.580 --> 57:17.070 what the outcome of the situation should be coming that would 57:17.070 --> 57:17.990 save a lot of trouble. 57:18.980 --> 57:21.930 I think we time for one quick one icy way in the back in the. Room. 57:27.390 --> 57:28.640 Thank you to degree. 57:30.320 --> 57:32.610 Uh oh the question about russia. 57:33.350 --> 57:36.140 It's pretty clear that Russia's involved. 57:37.070 --> 57:41.900 The Militarily and Perhaps even strategically and what's going 57:41.900 --> 57:42.700 on in ukraine. 57:43.490 --> 57:46.670 And when you look at what level we're proving has said repeatedly. 57:47.330 --> 57:52.510 Over time about the greatest testing of a 20 first century being 57:52.510 --> 57:53.330 the dissolution. 57:53.900 --> 57:56.360 Of The soviet union. 57:57.050 --> 58:01.470 Is it clear to use any viewed that he's trying they're retrawl 58:01.500 --> 58:07.110 alliance in europe and what if you this is a solution to stopping. That. 58:09.780 --> 58:11.380 Well I take a stand or. 58:13.440 --> 58:16.250 This certainly there's nostalgia in that he believes when you're 58:16.250 --> 58:17.100 just quoted him. 58:18.030 --> 58:22.080 As having said and uh I think that they have a very strong interest 58:22.080 --> 58:25.480 in what happens in their near abroad. I think the real difficulty 58:25.480 --> 58:28.200 for whom known for russia visa fee. The ukraine. 58:28.840 --> 58:33.560 Is that I think it's been sort of a a centerpiece of their effort 58:33.560 --> 58:37.450 to create some Connie eurasian economic union. So I think they've 58:37.450 --> 58:40.020 been concerned about it a uh slipping. 58:40.640 --> 58:45.010 A towards the towards the west and and I think what we're debating 58:45.010 --> 58:48.540 amongst ourselves and trying to analyze is just how far. 58:49.330 --> 58:52.080 Is he prepared to go home to prevent. 58:52.940 --> 58:58.320 Uh of the ukraine a one from becoming a unitarian and we'll organize 58:58.320 --> 59:03.810 state than to from exercising some cotton option to align itself for. 59:04.350 --> 59:08.860 A with with the west than it has previously but but my do mister 59:08.860 --> 59:13.150 coogan is very very tactical and so it's sometimes cotta hard 59:13.150 --> 59:16.520 to read him because he'll bob and we even go back and forth. 59:17.240 --> 59:20.510 That clearly is very uncomfortable with what's happened and that 59:20.540 --> 59:25.360 in the ukraine and I think that is he the strikes a responsive chord. 59:25.960 --> 59:27.760 In a lot of the russian public. 59:29.850 --> 59:33.050 I think that says for us so thank you of your questions thanks 59:33.050 --> 59:33.380 for great..